跨境资本流动新特征与资本账户开放新讨论  

The New Characteristics of China’s Cross-Border Capital Flows and the New Debate about Capital Account Liberalization

作　　者：张明[1] ZHANG Ming(Institute of Finance&Banking,CASS,100710)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所/国家金融与发展实验室,100710

出　　处：《财经智库》2022年第1期111-134,152,共25页Financial Minds

摘　　要：2012年以来,中国持续的双顺差格局显著改变,资本流动的波动性加大,其中跨境借贷资金的波动性显著高于直接投资与证券投资。2014—2020年,中国总体面临持续的资本流出。中国的资本开放过程并非是单调与线性的,而是经常出现放松与收紧的循环。考虑到当前国际环境依然复杂严峻、2014—2016年的历史可能重演、经常账户顺差缩小或逆转将会放大跨境资本流动的负面冲击、防范化解系统性金融风险的需要、资本账户开放与利率汇率改革的先后次序、不宜用人民币国际化来倒逼资本账户开放等因素,未来中国政府仍应审慎开放资本账户。中国政府应适当放松对ODI与QDII的管制,将发展离岸人民币金融市场与自贸区自贸港建设有机结合,将资本账户管理与宏观审慎监管更好结合起来,加快利率汇率形成机制改革,对跨境银行借贷保持适当管制以及引入托宾税。The twin-surplus situation of China’s BOP changed after 2012,and the volatility of capital flow increased significantly.The volatility of cross-border capital flow was much higher than that of direct investment or portfolio investment.China kept facing net capital outflow from 2014 to 2020.The current capital flow management regime had the characteristic of “easy in,difficult out”,and the liberalization of Chinese capital account was not linear and sometimes could reverse.Considering the factors such as the great uncertainties in external environment,the shrinking of current account surplus,the need to prevent systemic financial crisis,sequencing the reforms of capital account liberalization,RMB interest rate liberalization and RMB exchange rate liberalization,Chinese government should remain cautious to further open up its capital account.Finally,we offer some policy recommendations such as loosening the controls on ODI and QDII properly,developing offshore RMB financial markets on the basis of free trade zone and free trade port,integrating capital flow management with macro prudential regulations,accelerating the liberalization of RMB interest rate and exchange rate,keeping controls on cross-border borrowing and lending and introducing Tobin tax.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 系统性金融风险 宏观审慎监管 托宾税 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]