战略性新兴产业国际贸易网络的演化及动力机制研究  

Research on the Evolution of Strategic Emerging Industries’ International Trade Network and Its Dynamic Mechanism

作　　者：罗超亮 符正平[2] 刘冰[3] 王曦 LUO Chaoliang;FU Zhengping;LIU Bing;WANG Xi

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学工商管理学院 [2]中山大学管理学院 [3]中山大学旅游学院 [4]南华大学经济管理与法学学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2022年第3期121-139,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“断层视角下的多边联盟失稳机理及治理对策研究”(71902049);中国科学院委托项目“粤港澳大湾区现代产业体系构建与城市功能定位”研究(2018-SL02-B-008)。

摘　　要：本文基于时态指数随机图模型(TERGM),对战略性新兴产业国际贸易网络演化及动力机制进行了动态分析。研究发现:经济体的GDP、贸易额比重同时存在发送效应和接收效应,研发支出、贸易自由度仅存在发送效应;趋同效应显示战略性新兴产业贸易关系更易在GDP和产权保护度接近的经济体间产生;接壤网络、殖民网络和自由贸易协定网络对进出口贸易关系的形成和维持有着正向作用;战略性新兴产业国际贸易网络在演化的进程中保持着整体相对稳定的演进趋势,出口产品的经济体呈现出一种分散的趋势,但存在日益明显的等级结构,互惠贸易关系的形成具有显著的动态延迟特性。本文克服了传统方法仅关注外生因素和静态分析的局限,刻画了战略性新兴产业国际贸易网络的演化及其动力机制,为我国深入推动战略性新兴产业的发展,消除潜在贸易摩擦,维持和提升战略性新兴产业国际贸易网络中的优势地位提供了启示。Based on the temporal exponential random graph model(TERGM), this paper analyzed the evolution of strategic emerging industries’ international trade network and the dynamic mechanism that affects them.The analysis yields the following results.Both sending and receiving effects exist in economies’ GDP and trade ratio, while only sending effects exist in economies’ R&D expenditure and trade freedom.Convergence effect shows that trade relations in strategic emerging industries is more likely to occur between economies with similar GDP and degree of property rights protection.The border network, colony network and free trade agreement network have positive effect on the formation and maintenance of the import and export trade relationship between economies.The evolution of strategic emerging industries’ international trade network keeps relatively stable trend, while the export economies are decentralized, and exhibit an increasingly obvious hierarchical structure, moreover, the formation of reciprocal trade relations has a significantly dynamic delay characteristic.This study overcomes the limitations of traditional methods, which only focus on exogenous factors and static analysis, and deeply describes the evolution and dynamic mechanism of the strategic emerging industries international trade network.This study can provide guidance for developing strategic emerging industries in China and eliminate potential trade frictions, maintaining as well as enhancing the nation’s dominant position in the strategic emerging industries international trade network.

关 键 词：战略性新兴产业 国际贸易网络 演化 动力机制 时态指数随机图模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]