疫情影响下国际体育赛事外溢风险情景推演分析  

Scenario deduction and analysis for spillover risks of international sports events under influence of COVID-19

作　　者：方丹辉[1,2] 徐思敏 徐弘倩 徐苗 胡紫瑶 周敏[1,2] FANG Danhui;XU Simin;XU Hongqian;XU Miao;HU Ziyao;ZHOU Min(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第4期1-7,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFF0306000);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(2021-zy-077)。

摘　　要：为提高新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情背景下国际体育赛事风险防控能力,梳理疫情发生以来23场国际体育赛事的案例数据,构建以新冠肺炎疫情为风险源的演化网络模型;基于复杂网络理论的出入度、子网节点数、最短路径和平均路径对演化网络模型开展风险分析,找出关键风险事件节点,提出预防措施;通过分析风险链的成灾机制与类型,进一步找出关键风险链,提出断链减灾的对策建议。结果表明:举办地疫情严峻和病毒传播风险上升是演化网络的关键节点;政治关系-舆论循环链破坏性最大,需要推进舆情监测体系建设,加强赛事正面宣传力度。In order to improve risk prevention and control capabilities for international sports events under the background of COVID-19,case data of 23 international sports since the pandemic outbreak were collected,and an evolutionary network model with COVID-19 as risk source was established.Then,risk analysis on the model was carried out based on in-and-out degree,number of sub-net nodes,the shortest path and average path of complex network theory,key risk event nodes were identified,and preventive measures were put forward.Finally,critical chains were obtained by analyzing causal mechanism and types of risk chains,and countermeasures and suggestions for chain disconnection and disaster mitigation were put forward.The results show that severe epidemic situation and rising risk of virus transmission in host cities are the key nodes in evolutionary network,and cycle chain of political relations and public opinion is the most destructive one.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the development of a public opinion monitoring system and strengthen positive publicity of sports events.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎(COVID-19) 国际体育赛事 外溢风险 演化网络 风险链 情景推演 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]