定量风险评估视域下的多组分混合物危险特性  

Hazard characteristics of multi-component mixtures from perspective of quantitative risk assessment

作　　者：辛保泉 喻健良[2] 党文义 白永忠 于安峰 XIN Baoquan;YU Jianliang;DANG Wenyi;BAI Yongzhong;YU Anfeng(SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao Shandong 266101,China;School of Chemical Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian Liaoning 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]中石化安全工程研究院有限公司,山东青岛266101 [2]大连理工大学化工学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第4期80-85,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51604057);中石化安全工程研究院青年科技创新计划项目(YQ-59)。

摘　　要：为提高多组分混合物风险预测的准确性,基于风险理论研究高含硫天然气(SNG)、液化石油气(LPG)和汽油这3类典型混合物的危险特性。根据多组分模型理论和混合物特性,计算17种场景的外部安全防护距离(ESPD);对比分析单组分和多组分模型在定量风险评估(QRA)中的差异,提出预测多组分混合物事故风险的最优简化模型。研究表明:对于SNG,单组分比多组分的ESPD低估19.9%~61.4%;对于LPG,采用纯丙烷替代时低估13.6%~26.0%;采用“丙烷+丁烷”替代时高估43.3%~273.5%。对于汽油,采用正己烷替代时高估了2%~9.7%,采用辛烷替代时低估78.8%~95.3%。将多组分混合物等效为1类或多类单物质的方法,可能显著低估或高估混合物风险,建议在风险评估中采用2组分混合模型。In order to improve prediction accuracy of multi-component mixture risks,hazard characteristics of three typical mixtures of high SNG,liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)and gasoline were studied based on risk theory.ESPD of 17 kinds of scenarios was calculated according to multi-component model theory and mixture characteristics.Then,difference between pure component model and multi-component one in QRA was compared and analyzed,and an optimal simplified risk prediction model for multi-component mixtures was proposed.The results show that for SNG,ESPD of pure component is underestimated by 19.9%-61.4%compared with the multi-component.In the case of LPG,it is underestimated by 13.6%-26.0%to adopt substitution of pure propane,but overestimated by 43.3%-273.5%to adopt"propane+butane"substitution.Moreover,for gasoline,it is overestimated by 2%-9.7%for use of n-hexane,but underestimated by 78.8%-95.3%for that of octane.A method of equating a multi-component mixture to one or more pure substances may significantly underestimate or overestimate risks of mixtures,and it is suggested to adopt a two-component mixed model in risk assessment.

关 键 词：多组分混合物 定量风险评估(QRA) 高含硫天然气(SNG) 外部安全防护距离(ESPD) 热力学特性 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]