基于WoS的技术预测研究热点与前沿分析  

Research Hotspot and Frontier Analysis of Technology Forecasting Based on WoS

作　　者：高敏 王秀红[1,2] Gao Min;Wang Xiuhong(Institute of Science and Technology Information,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China;Library of Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学科技信息研究所,镇江212013 [2]江苏大学图书馆,镇江212013

出　　处：《图书情报研究》2022年第2期104-113,共10页Library and Information Studies

摘　　要：[目的/意义]通过收集国外学者关于技术预测的相关研究,深入了解技术预测领域的研究现状、研究热点及发展趋势,为技术创新发展提供参考与借鉴。[方法/过程]基于2001-2020年Web of Science核心合集的技术预测相关文献,利用文献调研、文献计量和科学知识图谱等方法,从时空分布、核心研究作者、重要载文期刊、研究热点、研究前沿、研究方向多角度进行定量与定性分析。[结果/结论]研究结果表明:技术预测研究已经成为产业界与学术界共同关注的焦点,其研究方向主要有技术机会分析、技术预测方法及实证研究、技术识别研究;研究热点主要包括新兴技术、预测模型及专利等方面;人工智能、大数据、区块链与技术预测的融合将成为未来的研究前沿。[Purpose/significance]By collecting relevant researches of foreign scholars on technology forecasting,this article deeply explores the research status,hotspots and development trends in the field of technology forecasting,and provides references and lessons for technology innovation and development.[Method/process]In view of the relevant literatures in the field of technology forecasting from 2001 to 2020 based on Web of Science core collection database,the methods of literature research,bibliometrics and mapping knowledge domain are used to carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis from multiple aspects of spatial and temporal distribution,core research authors,important journals,research hotspots,research frontiers and research directions respectively.[Result/conclusion]The results prove that the research of technology forecasting has become a focus of both industry and academia.The research direction can be summarized into three aspects:technology opportunity analysis,technology forecasting methods and empirical research,and technology identification.The hotspots of technology forecasting research abroad include emerging technologies,forecasting models and patents,etc.The fusion of artificial intelligence,big data,blockchain and technology forecasting will become the research frontier.

关 键 词：技术预测 文献计量 科学知识图谱 可视化 

分 类 号：G321.9[文化科学]