一次致灾强冰雹过程分析与高分辨率数值模拟研究  

Analysis and High-resolution Numerical Simulation Study on a Disastrous Hail Storm

作　　者：李超 彭小燕 林应 束艾青 顾沛澍 梅一清 岳梦琦 LI Chao;PENG Xiaoyan;LIN Ying;SHU Aiqing;GU Peishu;MEI Yiqing;YUE Mengqi(Nantong Meteorological Bureau,Nantong 226018,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Ninghai Meteorological Bureau,Ningbo 315600,China)

机构地区：[1]南通市气象局,江苏南通226018 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [3]宁海县气象局,浙江宁波315600

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2022年第2期23-31,共9页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：江苏省南通市气象局行业气象服务科技创新培育团队(NQT201801);江苏省南通市气象局科研开发项目(NQK201803、NQK202004)。

摘　　要：为提高冰雹天气过程的预报预警能力,减轻其对农业生产的影响,利用多种气象资料,对2018年5月16日南通市北部首场大冰雹过程从环流背景、水汽、热力等方面进行了详细分析;并应用中尺度非静力WRF模式,对该降雹过程进行数值模拟,再现了冰雹形成的背景条件及过程。分析表明:上冷下暖的配置导致大气层结不稳定,本次过程的动力抬升条件是由高低空急流、中低层切变线及露点锋等系统相配合提供的;地面切变线是触发系统。在高0℃层的不利背景下,高CAPE值、较强的深层风垂直切变、600 hPa以上明显的冷平流、低层较强的水汽输送及边界层θse随高度增加明显减小均有利于冰雹天气的出现。深层垂直风切变、中低层温湿梯度大值区及边界层θse锋区与高能舌重叠区均与冰雹落区有较好的对应。雹暴单体具有入流V型缺口、钩状回波、高悬的强反射率因子、三体散射、持续高VIL值等大冰雹回波特征;70 kg/m^(2)以上VIL高值的稳定维持与大冰雹的出现对应较好。WRF模式成功地再现了本次冰雹影响的全过程,是局地不断生成的对流单体与飑线相结合,促使飑线南段对流增强,飑线系统再次发展的过程。对流有效位能的释放、垂直风切变的加强、暖平流的增强及明显干入侵对强对流的发展增强有指示意义。In order to improve the forecast and early-warning ability of hail storm and reduce its impact on agricultural production,by using a variety of observation data,the severe hail storm in northern Nantong on 16 May,2018 was analyzed in terms of local circulation background,moisture,instability,etc.Besides,numerical simulation on this process was conducted by using mesoscale non-hydrostatic WRF model to address the mechanism of the formation of the hail preliminarily.It showed that:the distribution of cold in upper layer and warm in lower layer led to the instability of atmosphere.The combination of jets in high and low layers,shear lines in middle and low layers,dry lines and convergent systems on the ground provided favorable dynamic condition for severe convection,and the ground shear line was the trigger of this hail storm.Under the background of high 0℃layer,high CAPE,strong and deep vertical wind shear in low and middle layers,obvious cold advection above 600 hPa,strong moisture conveyance andθsedecreasing evidently with the height in boundary layer were all favorable for the advent of hail.Also,vertical wind shear from the ground to 6 km high,the maximum area of temperature and moisture gradient in low and middle layers,and the overlapping part ofθsefront and high energy tongue in boundary layer corresponded well with the hail-failing area.The storm monomer had features of the big hail echo,like inflow V notch,hook-like echo,high-suspended strong reflectivity,three-body scattering,long-lasting high VIL value,etc.In addition,the high-stable value of VIL above 70 kg/m^(2)was consistent with the appearance of severe hail.The WRF model reproduced this process well and could explain the reason of this hail storm.The regional continuous generated convective monomer intermixing with the squall line resulted in the strengthening of the squall line in its southern part.Then the squall line underwent a reorganizing process.Therefore,the release of CAPE,the intensification of strong wind shear and warm advection alo

关 键 词：致灾强冰雹过程 高0℃层 成因 雷达回波特征 高分辨率数值模拟 

分 类 号：P458.121.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]