我国黑木耳出口价格波动特征分析  

Analysis on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Export Price of Auricularia auricula in China

作　　者：王智群 张润清[1] 白丽[1] WANG Zhiqun;ZHANG Runqing;BAI Li(Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学,河北保定071000

出　　处：《蔬菜》2022年第5期44-48,共5页Vegetables

基　　金：河北省食用菌产业体系(HBCT2018050301)。

摘　　要：以2017年1月—2021年7月我国黑木耳出口到世界的月度平均价格作为研究对象,采用Census-X12季节调整法和H-P滤波法将黑木耳的出口价格波动分解为季节性特征、不规则特征、循环特征和趋势特征4种类型。研究发现,黑木耳出口价格总体呈下降趋势,季节性特征显著,无明显的循环周期且不规则特征未出现减缓态势。为进一步稳定黑木耳出口价格波动,提出在黑木耳提质增收的同时要降低生产成本、不断改进黑木耳扩繁促产技术、统筹利用国际市场、满足我国黑木耳出口需求等切实可行的建议。Taking the monthly average price of Chinese Auricularia auricula exported to the world from January 2017 to July 2021 as the research object,the export price fluctuation of Auricularia auricula was divided into four types,such as seasonal characteristics,irregular characteristics,cyclic characteristics and trend characteristics by using census-x12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method.The study found that the export price of Auricularia auricula showed a downward trend,with significant seasonal characteristics,no obvious cycle and irregular characteristics with no slowing trend.In order to further stabilize the fluctuation of the export price of Auricularia auricula,some practical suggestions were put forward,such as reducing the production cost while improving the quality and increasing the income of Auricularia auricula,continuously improving the propagation and production promotion technology of Auricularia auricula,making overall use of the international market and meeting the export demand of Auricularia auricula in China and so on.

关 键 词：黑木耳 出口价格 价格波动 CensusX-12季节调整法 H-P滤波法 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62