一种分析大坝安全状况的改进变权层次分析法  

An improved variable weight analytic hierarchy process for dam safety analysis

作　　者：王硕 沈振中[1,2] 张文兵 孙一清 姬阳 WANG Shuo;SHEN Zhenzhong;ZHANG Wenbing;SUN Yiqing;JI Yang(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2022年第3期97-103,共7页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1765205);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B210203065);江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK20201312)。

摘　　要：为适应大坝安全评价对复杂指标体系和多元评价主体的要求,降低传统变权层次分析法对均衡系数取值的主观性和盲目性缺陷对评价结果的客观性和真实性的影响,提出了一种改进均衡系数的变权AHP。以马庙水库工程为实例,比较分析了传统变权AHP和改进变权AHP求出的二级指标的变权权重以及一级指标和总目标的模糊综合得分。结果表明:改进变权AHP可以避免传统变权AHP对各项二级指标均衡系数的独立赋值所导致的“状态失衡”问题,并且可适当削弱因赋予各项二级指标相同均衡系数所带来的盲目性,提高了评价结果与水库安全现状的贴合程度;评价结果与专家组所得结论一致,证明了本文方法的可靠性。In order to meet the requirements of complex index system and multiple evaluation subjects for reservoir safety evaluation,and to reduce the influence of the subjectivity and blindness of traditional variable weight AHP equilibrium coefficient on the objectivity and authenticity of the evaluation results,a variable weight AHP with improved equilibrium coefficient was proposed.Through the application to the Mamiao Reservoir project,the variable weight of secondary indicators and the fuzzy comprehensive score of primary indicators and overall objectives calculated by traditional variable weight AHP and improved variable weight AHP were compared and analyzed.The results show that the improved variable weight AHP can avoid the problem of state imbalance caused by the independent assignment of the equilibrium coefficient of each secondary index by the traditional variable weight AHP,and the blindness caused by giving the same equilibrium coefficient to each secondary index is appropriately weakened.The fit between the evaluation result and the current situation of reservoir safety is improved.The evaluation results are consistent with the conclusions of the expert group,which shows the reliability of the method in this paper.

关 键 词：大坝安全评价 层次分析法 变权权重 状态变权向量 均衡系数 

分 类 号：TV641.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]