2006—2020年温州市新报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例时空特征分析  

Spatio-temporal characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020

作　　者：张鹤美[1] 高四海[2] 陈向阳[1] 叶振淼[1] 李君[1] 赵丽娜[1] 苏德华[1] 胡文雪 赖江宜 陈婉君 ZHANG Hemei;GAO Sihai;CHEN Xiangyang;YE Zhenmiao;LI Jun;ZHAO Lina;SU Dehua;HU Wenxue;LAI Jiangyi;CHEN Wanjun(Institute of AIDS and STD Prevention and Control,Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325000,China;Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325000,China;Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310057,China)

机构地区：[1]温州市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病性病防制所,浙江温州325000 [2]温州市疾病预防控制中心,浙江温州325000 [3]浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江杭州310057

出　　处：《预防医学》2022年第5期483-486,共4页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：温州市基础性科研项目(Y20190694);浙江省卫生健康科技计划(2021KY623)。

摘　　要：目的分析2006—2020年温州市新报告≥50岁艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)的时空分布特征,为艾滋病疫情精准防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2006—2020年温州市新报告≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例资料,采用全局和局部空间自相关分析、时空扫描分析≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例的时间和空间聚集性特征。结果2006—2020年温州市新报告≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例1917例;2006—2010年、2011—2015年和2016—2020年分别为179例、643例和1095例,分布于58、113和147个乡镇(街道),Moran's I值分别为0.05(Z=1.976,P=0.046)、0.08(Z=2.314,P=0.028)和0.18(Z=3.956,P=0.003),病例分布呈空间正相关。一级聚集区主要覆盖鹿城区、瓯海区、龙湾区、经济技术开发区、瑞安市和平阳县的70个乡镇(街道),聚集时间为2014年1月1日—2020年12月31日,辐射半径为34.30 km(LLR=192.84,RR=2.60,P<0.001)。二级聚集区位于乐清市虹桥镇,聚集时间为2009年1月1日—2015年12月31日,辐射半径为0(LLR=90.60,RR=7.27,P<0.001)。结论2006—2020年温州市新报告≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例呈上升趋势,主要聚集在温州市区、瑞安市和平阳县。Objective To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases at ages of 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020,so as to provide insights into precise control of AIDS.Methods The data of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of new HIV/AIDS cases at ages of 50 years and older were identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analy⁃ses and spatial-temporal scan analysis.Results Totally 1917 new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older were de⁃tected in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020,and there were 179 new HIV/AIDS cases in 58 townships(streets)from 2006 to 2010,643 cases in 113 townships(streets)from 2011 to 2015 and 1095 cases in 147 townships(streets)from 2016 to 2020,respectively.The distribution of new HIV/AIDS cases appeared positive spatial autocorrelations from 2006 to 2010(Moran's I value=0.05,Z=1.976,P=0.046),from 2011 to 2015(Moran's I value=0.08,Z=2.314,P=0.028)and from 2016 to 2020(Moran's I value=0.18,Z=3.956,P=0.003).Spatial-temporal scan analysis identified two clus⁃ters.The primary cluster mainly covered 70 towns(streets)in Lucheng Distrct,Ouhai District,Longwan District,Eco⁃nomic and Technical Development Region,Rui'an City and Pingyang County of Wenzhou City from January 1,2014 to December 31,2020,with a cluster radius of 34.30 km[log likelihood ratio(LLR)=192.84,RR=2.60,P<0.001],and the secondary cluster was located in Hongqiao Township of Yueqing City from January 1,2009 to December 31,2015,with a cluster radius of 0(LLR=90.60,RR=7.27,P<0.001).Conclusions The number of new HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 years and older appeared a tendency towards a rise in Wenzhou City from 2006 to 2020,with spatial clusters that were predominantly identified in urban areas,Rui'an City and Pingyang County of Wenzhou City.

关 键 词：艾滋病 时空分布 时空扫描分析 温州市 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]