基于交叉谱分析的我国经济周期与金融周期实证研究  

An Empirical Study on China’s Economic Cycle and Financial Cycle Based on Cross Spectrum Analysis

作　　者：仰炬 李文婷 张有方 YANG Ju;LI Wen-ting;ZHANG You-fang(Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China;Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201802,China;BNP PARIBAS Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 20012,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融学院,上海201620 [2]上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司,上海201802 [3]法国巴黎银行(中国)有限公司,上海200012

出　　处：《上海对外经贸大学学报》2022年第3期25-39,共15页Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics

基　　金：上海市金融局《上海海外金才开发计划(2017)》“中外金融机构在结构融资领域的业务合作与行业水平的提升”项目资助。

摘　　要：随着金融因素在经济发展中的重要性愈发显著,信贷、资产、房地产价格及相应的金融周期与经济政策、经济周期存在怎样的关系成为监管当局和越来越多国内外学者关注的热点问题。本文基于我国1995~2019年的月度数据,对金融周期和经济周期之间的关系进行了实证分析。通过交叉谱分析了金融周期与经济周期的互动关系,对金融周期与经济周期的领先与滞后、波幅与频率等进行了研究,并给出了相应的政策建议。With the increasing importance of financial factors in economic development,the relationship between credit,asset,real estate prices and the corresponding financial cycles and economic policies and economic cycles has become hot issue of regulatory authorities and more and more scholars.Based on China’s monthly data from 1995 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between the financial cycle and the economic cycle.Through the cross-spectrum analysis of the interaction between the financial cycle and the economic cycle,the lead and lag,the volatility and the frequency of the financial cycle and the economic cycle.Finally,the paper gives corresponding policy suggestions.

关 键 词：经济周期 金融周期 交叉谱分析 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]