双边自由贸易协定对双边外商直接投资的影响机制——基于知识资本模型的分析  

Mechanisms for the Impact of Bilateral FTA on Bilateral FDI—Analysis Based on Knowledge Capital Model

作　　者：王效云 WANG Xiaoyun(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2022年第2期27-41,共15页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

摘　　要：基于跨国直接投资知识资本模型,建立双边自由贸易协定(FTA)影响双边外商直接投资(FDI)的完整分析框架,并从影响FDI的因素入手,梳理FTA可能作用于FDI的渠道和机制,即贸易成本效应、投资规则效应和市场规模效应。FTA通过贸易成本效应将促进垂直型FDI、抑制水平型FDI,并通过投资规则效应和市场规模效应促进垂直型FDI和水平型FDI。因此,对于垂直型FDI而言,双边FTA将起到明确的促进作用;对于水平型FDI而言,FTA的影响取决于正向的投资规则效应和市场规模效应与负向的贸易成本效应之间的角逐。选取26个发达国家、34个发展中国家1996—2017年双边投资数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明:建设自由贸易区对引进外资和对外投资既可起到推动作用,亦可起到阻碍作用,但通过对FTA内容的合理设置可以减少或规避对外资的不利因素。具体来说,中国同发达国家签署的自贸协定将促进双边直接投资;与发展中国家签署的自由贸易协定,既可能促进双边FDI,也可能阻碍双边FDI。因此,在FTA谈判中要权衡贸易成本效应和投资规则效应,较高标准的投资条款可使其对双边FDI发挥积极效应。Based on the knowledge capital model of transnational direct investment,this paper establishes a complete analytical framework of the impact of bilateral free trade agreements(FTAs)on bilateral foreign direct investment(FDI),and sorts out the channels and mechanisms that FTAs may act on FDI,namely,the trade cost effect,the investment rules effect and the market scale effect.FTAs will promote vertical FDI and inhibit horizontal FDI through the trade cost effect.FTAs will promote vertical FDI and suppress horizontal FDI through the effects of investment rules and market scale.Therefore,for vertical FDI,bilateral FTAs will play a clear role in promoting.For horizontal FDI,the impact of the FTA depends on the competition between the positive effects of investment rules and market size and the negative effect of trade cost.This paper also selects the bilateral investment data of 26 developed countries and 34 developing countries from 1996 to 2017 to empirical test the theoretical assumptions above,showing that the construction of free trade zones can promote or hinder bilateral foreign direct investment.However,the reasonable setting of FTA content can reduce or avoid unfavorable factors of foreign investment.Specifically,the FTA signed by China with developed countries will promote bilateral direct investment,but with developing countries may promote or hinder bilateral FDI.In FTA negotiations,it is necessary to weigh the trade cost effect and investment rules effect,and higher standard investment terms may make them have a positive effect on bilateral FDI.

关 键 词：双边FTA 双边FDI 贸易成本效应 投资规则效应 市场规模效应 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]