旅游增长与碳排放脱钩状态及其驱动因素研究--一个新的脱钩分析框架  

Decoupling Relationship between Tourism Growth and Carbon Emissions and the Associated Driving Factors:A Novel Analytic Framework

作　　者：查建平[1] 戴家权 刘珂吉 余乔 周志坚 ZHA Jianping;DAI Jiaquan;LIU Keji;YU Qiao;ZHOU Zhijian(School of Tourism,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学旅游学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2022年第4期13-24,共12页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“乡村旅游地农户旅游经营行为及其效率提升路径研究:以四川省为例”(71704125);四川省科学技术厅项目“智慧文旅科技平台建设研究与示范”(2020YFS0062);原国家旅游局规划项目“‘社会-经济-环境’系统耦合视角下乡村旅游用地效率、模式及政策研究”(17TABG012)共同资助。

摘　　要：全面厘清旅游增长与碳排放的动态脱钩关系及其背后的驱动因素,对于制定科学合理的低碳旅游发展政策、实现旅游产业可持续发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。文章将对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分解技术与基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的动态效应分析法引入脱钩指数模型中,对传统脱钩指数分析进行了改进,构建了新型的旅游增长与碳排放脱钩关系分析模型,尝试对旅游增长与碳排放脱钩关系展开系统深入研究,并以成都市为例进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:(1)旅游增长与碳排放脱钩状态具有明显的阶段性特征,总体脱钩指数值为0.806,虽实现了整体上的弱脱钩状态,但旅游增长与碳排放之间仍呈现显著的正向关联,旅游业距离实现强脱钩目标仍有较大差距。(2)能源强度效应是旅游业脱钩过程中唯一的正向影响因素,游客规模效应和消费水平效应则是脱钩实现的主要抑制因素,而能源结构效应与收入结构效应的作用则不大。(3)不同驱动因素之间存在复杂的交互影响机制,表明未来旅游业脱钩工作在聚焦如何降低能源强度、优化产业结构与转变消费方式的同时,更需要注重保持各驱动因素之间稳定均衡关系与动态作用机制,以实现最大效用的协同脱钩。In light of climate change,clarifying the dynamic decoupling relationship between tourism growth and carbon emissions in China in addition to identifying the associated driving factors are of great significance toward achieving sustainable tourism.In this paper,we extended the Tapio decoupling index model by adding the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method and vector autoregressive model;in that way,we constructed a new tourism-environment decoupling analytic framework.We adopted that approach with Chengdu:we investigated the dynamic decoupling relationship between tourism growth and carbon emissions in addition to the associated driving factors there for 1991—2018.We obtained the following results.First,tourism-related carbon emissions maintained a relatively high growth trend in the study period,the growth curve of tourism-related carbon emissions can be divided into two phases:a relatively slow growth phase from 1991 to 2008 and a rapid growth phase from 2008 to 2018,and there is a big difference in carbon emissions among four tourism subsectors in the study period.Second,there was an overall weak decoupling of tourism growth from carbon emissions:the average decoupling index was 0.806.We divided the study period into three phases:a fluctuating weak decoupling stage(1991—2003);an overall expansive negative decoupling stage(2004—2012);and a stable weak decoupling stage(2013—2018).Third,during the study period,only the decoupling index of energy intensity consistently played a promoting role in the decoupling process;the decoupling index of consumption level and decoupling index of tourism scale played a restraining role;the decoupling index of energy structure and decoupling index of income structure played an insignificant role.Fourth,various driving factors were markedly linked with one another in both the short and long term.Effective decoupling of growth and carbon emissions in China’s tourism industry requires initiatives with a strategic focus on maintaining the synergistic relatio

关 键 词：旅游碳排放 脱钩指数模型 LMDI分解法 动态效应分析 成都 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]