重庆市轨道交通车站预测客流与实际客流误差分析  

Analysis of Error between Predicted Ridership and Actual Ridership in Urban Rail Transit Stations of Chongqing

作　　者：刘海洲[1,2] 李棠迪 LIU Haizhou;LI Tangdi(College of Traffic and Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Road Traffic Office,Chongqing Transport Planning and Research Institute,Chongqing 401147,China;Traffic Information Center,Chongqing Transport Planning and Research Institute,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆市交通规划研究院道路交通所,重庆401147 [3]重庆市交通规划研究院交通信息中心,重庆401147

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2022年第4期119-123,共5页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：重庆市科学技术委员会主题专项重点研发项目(cstc2017rgzn-zdyfx0015)。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通车站客流预测的精确度将直接影响轨道车站建筑方案设计,对于后期轨道车站建设运营意义重大。提高轨道车站客流预测的精度已逐渐成为业内专家关注的重点问题之一。以重庆市主城区轨道车站客流预测为例,将重庆市已运营的8条线路、162座轨道交通车站实际进出闸机数据与工可客流预测数据进行对比分析,查找预测客流与实际客流的差异,研究发现仅有37%的车站预测值与实际值相差在20%以内,有60%以上的车站预测客流与实际客流差值在20%以上。重点从客流预测外部条件变化、轨道车站服务人口的确定、站点出入口模型构建、出行分布权重参数选择、乘客自身属性对方式选择影响等几个方面查找分析误差形成原因,并针对如何提高后期轨道客流预测精度提出相关建议。The accuracy of ridership prediction of urban rail transit(URT)stations directly affects the architectural scheme design of URT stations,which is of great significance for the construction and operation of URT stations in later stages.Therefore,improving the accuracy of ridership prediction of URT stations has gradually become one of the key issues focused on by industry experts.Taking the ridership prediction of URT stations in the main urban area of Chongqing as an example,this paper comparatively analyzed the actual gate data of eight lines and 162 URT stations in Chongqing with the ridership prediction data of the engineering feasibility study and found the difference between the predicted and actual ridership.The result revealed that the difference between the predicted and actual ridership is less than 20%for only 37%of the stations and is over 20%for more than 60%of the stations.For reason analysis of this result,this paper put emphasis on aspects such as the change of external conditions of ridership prediction,the determination of service population of URT stations,station entrance and exit modeling,the weight parameter selection of travel distribution,and the impact of passengers’attributes on mode selection.Additionally,we put forward relevant suggestions for improving the accuracy of rail ridership prediction in the later stage.

关 键 词：轨道车站 客流预测 交通生成 交通分布 误差分析 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]