基于范例推理的管道地质灾害防护决策方法  

Decision-making approach for geohazard treatment of pipelines based on case-based reasoning

作　　者：李亮亮 吴张中 费雪松 白路遥 施宁 温玉芬 LI Liangliang;WU Zhangzhong;FEI Xuesong;BAI Luyao;SHI Ning;WEN Yufen(PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology,National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety;PipeChina North Pipeline Company)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司·油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室,河北省廊坊市065000 [2]国家管网集团北方管道公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2022年第3期272-280,共9页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家管网集团科技专项“油气管道线路及站场感知技术研究”,WZXGL202106。

摘　　要：管道建设与运营企业针对地质灾害开展了大量防治工作,但如何将成功的灾害防治经验应用于其他类似管道地质灾害防护工程中仍缺乏深入研究。待治理的灾害点与成功完成治理的类似灾害点在发育机制、破坏模式、管道危害以及防护方式上具有相似之处,为此,构建了基于范例推理的模糊相似优先检索模型,使待解决防护方案(目标范例)与已成功防护方案(源范例)之间建立合理的关联关系:①建立由标识区、属性特征区及工程建设信息区组成的范例库;②利用变权方法为各属性特征赋权重;③针对每个属性分别建立目标范例与源范例之间的模糊相似优先关系,并形成相似优先比矩阵;④对属性进行两两比较,获得不同属性下目标范例与源范例之间的相似序列;⑤根据考虑属性权重的综合相似序列,确定与目标范例最相似的源范例。该方法虽然无法取代专业技术人员对工程防护方案的经验判断,但不失为一种直观且较为合理的计算机辅助决策手段。A large number of prevention and treatment measures for geohazard have been developed by the pipeline construction and operation enterprises.However,how to apply successful disaster treatment experience to other similar pipeline geohazard prevention projects is still lack of in-depth research.The hazard points to be treated and the similar hazard points having been treated share some commonalities in terms of the development mechanism,damage mode,damage to pipelines,and the treatment method.Accordingly,a fuzzy analogy preferred retrieval model was established through case-based reasoning,so that a reasonable relationship could be built between the case to be solved(the target case)and the solved case(the base case):(1)A case base was established,comprising the identification area,attribute feature area and project construction information area.(2)The attribute features were weighted with the variable weight method.(3)The fuzzy analogy preferred relationship was established between the target and base cases of each attribute,and the fuzzy analogy preferred ratio matrix was formed.(4)The similar series between the target and base cases of different attributes were obtained by pairwise comparison.(5)The base case that is most similar to the target case was found out according to the comprehensive similar series considering the attribute weight.Although this method cannot replace the experience judgment of professional technicians on engineering prevention and treatment schemes,it is an intuitive and reasonable computer aided decision-making method.

关 键 词：油气管道 地质灾害 范例推理 目标范例 源范例 模糊相似优先 防护 决策方法 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]