基于SPEI的嘉陵江流域旱涝时空演变分析  

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and flood in Jialing River Basin based on SPEI

作　　者：王世杰[1] 刘柯莹 孟长青 WANG Shijie;LIU Keying;MENG Changqing(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2022年第5期12-19,共8页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会青年项目(41901028);中央高校基本科研业务费-面上项目(2020MS025)。

摘　　要：判断旱涝灾害发生的频率、范围、强度和趋势具有重要意义。在嘉陵江流域1958~2017年实测月平均气温和月降水数据的基础上,引入不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI),结合旱(涝)频率、旱(涝)站次比和旱(涝)强度评估指标分析了嘉陵江流域旱涝频率、范围、强度的时空演变特征。结果表明:嘉陵江流域近60 a来雨涝的频率高于干旱,其中夏旱、秋涝频率最高;全区旱涝相当,区域性旱多于涝,旱涝强度变化趋势基本一致;随着时间尺度的不断增大,嘉陵江西北大范围的干旱增加趋势趋于显著,而东南部少量地区由干旱趋势转为雨涝趋势,总体来看,流域呈北旱南涝的趋势发展。研究成果可为旱涝评估、防洪减灾工作提供依据。The impact of droughts and floods is extremely severe,and determining the frequency,scope,intensity and trend of their occurrence is of great significance to disaster prevention and control.According to the measured monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature data in the Jialing River Basin from 1958 to 2017,through the standardized precipitation evaporation index(SPEI)of different time scales,combining with the drought(flood)frequency,drought(flood)station ratio and drought(flood)intensity evaluation indicators,the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of the frequency,scope and intensity of drought and flood in the Jialing River Basin were analyzed.The results showed that the frequency of rainy waterlogging in the Jialing River Basin in the past 60 years was higher than that of drought,among which,the summer droughts and autumn waterlogging had the highest frequency;the drought and flood in the whole region were basically equivalent,regional droughts were more than re⁃gional flood,and the trend of drought and flood intensity was basically same.As the time scale increased,the in⁃creasing trend of large-scale droughts in the northwest of the Jialing River tended to be significant,while a small number of areas in the southeast turned from drought to rainy waterlogging.Generally speaking,the basin is develop⁃ing in a trend of drought in the north and flood in the south.The research can provide a basis for drought and flood assessment,flood prevention and disaster reduction.

关 键 词：旱涝强度 旱涝频率 旱涝趋势 SPEI指数 嘉陵江流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]