滕州矿区3#煤综放开采顶板导水断裂带高度预测模型  

A prediction model for height of water-conducting fracture zone in fully mechanized caving of 3#coal seam in Tengzhou Mining Area

作　　者：曹始友 董方营 陈大林 张历峰 徐德宝 王松 王鹏 尹会永 郑永杰 CAO Shiyou;DONG Fangying;CHEN Dalin;ZHANG Lifeng;XU Debao;WANG Song;WANG Peng;YIN Huiyong;ZHENG Yongjie(Zaozhuang Mining(Group)Company Limited,Zaozhuang 277100,China;College of Earth Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Depositional Mineralization&Sedimentary Minerals,Qingdao 266590,China;Jiangzhuang Coal Mine,Zaozhuang Mining(Group)Company Limited,Zaozhuang 277519,China;Binhu Coal Mine,Zaozhuang Mining(Group)Company Limited,Zaozhuang 277599,China;Zaozhuang Mining(Group)Xin’an Company Limited,Zaozhuang 277607,China;Zaozhuang Mining(Group)Fucun Company Limited,Zaozhuang 277605,China;Shandong Sanhekou Mining Company Limited,Jining 277600,China;Qingdao Geological Exploration Institute of China Metallurgical Geology Bureau,Qingdao 266109,China)

机构地区：[1]枣庄矿业(集团)有限责任公司,山东枣庄277100 [2]山东科技大学地球科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590 [3]山东省沉积成矿作用与沉积矿产重点实验室,山东青岛266590 [4]枣庄矿业(集团)有限责任公司蒋庄煤矿,山东枣庄277519 [5]枣庄矿业(集团)有限责任公司滨湖煤矿,山东枣庄277599 [6]枣庄矿业集团新安煤业有限公司,山东济宁277607 [7]枣庄矿业(集团)付村煤业有限公司,山东济宁277605 [8]山东省三河口矿业有限责任公司,山东济宁277600 [9]中国冶金地质总局青岛地质勘查院,山东青岛266109

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2022年第3期236-242,共7页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0804101);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2019MD013)。

摘　　要：为精确预测滕州矿区山西组3#煤综放开采顶板导水断裂带发育高度,以滕州矿区18个采煤工作面导水断裂带高度和各主控因素实测数据为基础,运用SPSS软件对采厚、采深、煤层倾角、走向长度、倾向长度、顶板厚度6个因素进行相关性分析,并构建了导水断裂带高度多元线性回归预测模型;以藤县煤田4个工作面为例,分别采用“三下规范”公式、中国矿业大学(北京)总结经验公式和回归模型对导水断裂带高度进行计算并进行误差分析对比;借助UDEC数值模拟分析进行辅助验证。结果表明:本模型预测值与实测值更接近,较经验公式计算结果精度更高,误差基本控制在8%以内,提高了预测精度。In order to accurately predict the development height of water-conducting fracture zone in the roof of fully mechanized caving coal of No.3 coal seam in Tengzhou Mining Area,based on the measured data of water-conducting fracture zone height and main control factors of 18 working faces in Tengzhou Mining Area,we use SPSS software to carry out correlation analysis on six factors such as mining thickness,mining depth,coal seam dip angle,strike length,dip length and roof thickness,and build the water-conducting fractured zone height of multivariate linear regression forecast model.Finally,four working faces in Tengxian Coalfield are taken as examples to calculate the height of water-conducting fracture zone and compare the error analysis by using the regulations for coal mining under buildings,water bodies and railways,standard formula and regression model.In addition,Tengdong Coal Mine also used UDEC numerical simulation analysis for auxiliary verification.The results show that the model’s predicted values in this paper are closer to the measured values(the error is controlled within 8%),and the accuracy is higher than that of the empirical formula.

关 键 词：山西组3#煤 综放开采 导水断裂带 SPSS多元回归 预测模型 UDEC软件 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]