基于改进贝叶斯网络的能源互联网通信系统风险传递分析  

Analysis on risk transmission of energy internet communication system based on improved Bayesian network

作　　者：张磊[1] 贾雪枫 ZHANG Lei;JIA Xuefeng(School of Graduate,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Economic and Management Administration,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学研究生院,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《黑龙江电力》2022年第1期1-7,共7页Heilongjiang Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71840004)。

摘　　要：作为电力网与信息网的连接主体,能源互联网通信系统是控制风险传递的关键。为保障能源互联网的可靠运行,首先,梳理风险传递指标,提出了考虑设备、环境、业务和运维的能源互联网通信系统风险传递网络;然后,借助三角模糊数和证据理论为贝叶斯网络根节点概率赋值;最后,确定了通信网络中的关键风险节点。以某地的通信网络为例进行了算例分析,结果表明,设备因素中光缆损耗程度与运维因素中设备检修次数是能源互联网通信系统风险传递的关键节点,应采取针对性的措施,保障系统的可靠性并控制风险。As the main body of the connection between power network and information network,energy internet communication system is the key to control risk transmission・In order to ensure the reliable operation of energy internet,this paper firstly combs the risk transfer index,and proposes the energy internet communication system risk transmission network considering equipment,environment,business and operation and maintenance・Then,the probability of root node in Bayesian network is assigned by using the triangle fuzzy number and DS evidence theory.Finally,the key risk nodes in communication network are determined.This paper takes the communication network of a place as an example to analyze the calculation.The results show that the loss of optical cable in equipment factors and the number of equipment maintenance in operation and maintenance factors are the key nodes of risk transmission of energy internet communication system.Targeted measures should be taken to ensure the reliability of the system and control the risk.

关 键 词：能源互联网通信系统 贝叶斯网络 风险传递 三角模糊数 证据理论 

分 类 号：TM-9[电气工程] TM732