中国与RCEP成员国经济增长非对称冲击研究  

Research on the Asymmetric Impact of Economic Growth between China and RCEP Member Countries

作　　者：黄宁[1] 李娜丽沙 Huang Ning;Li Na-li-sha

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《亚太经济》2022年第2期8-18,共11页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国国内价值链与全球价值链互动研究--基于投入产出模型的双重扩展”(71963036)。

摘　　要：在跨国静态面板模型和全球向量自回归模型分析中国与RCEP成员国经济增长非对称冲击效应的基础上,进一步利用网络分析方法解释了这种非对称冲击效应的原因。研究表明:RCEP中的发达国家受到中国经济冲击的影响最为显著,越南、柬埔寨受中国经济冲击的影响不断加强,老挝、缅甸受到的冲击影响最小;中国经济波动的冲击效应体现在能够显著促进RCEP成员国的经济增长,而RCEP成员国的经济波动对中国的反向冲击影响较小,中国与RCEP成员国的双向冲击是非对称的,这种非对称冲击效应是由中国的经济网络中心地位所决定的;在RCEP区域内,无论是从整体上还是部门上看,中国的经济网络结构均处于首位度的位置,反映了中国在RCEP中不可替代的突出地位。of content:Based on the analysis of the asymmetric shock effect between China and RCEP member countries by the transnational static panel model and the global vector autoregressive model,this paper further uses the network analysis method to explain that the asymmetric shock effect is caused by China in the RCEP economy.Determined by the status in the contact.The research shows that:(1)RCEP has the most significant impact on developed countries by China’s economic shock,Vietnam and Cambodia have been increasingly affected by China’s economic shock,and Laos and Myanmar have been relatively least affected by the shock.(2)The shock effect of China’s economic fluctuations is reflected in the fact that it can significantly promote the economic growth of other RCEP member states,while the economic fluctuations of other RCEP member states have less adverse impact on China;the two-way shocks between China and other RCEP member states are asymmetric Yes,this asymmetric shock effect is determined by China’s network center status.(3)China ranks first in the RCEP region in terms of overall and departmental network structure,reflecting China’s irreplaceable prominent position in the RCEP economic ties.

关 键 词：RCEP 全球向量自回归模型 网络分析方法 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]