中国与RCEP国家贸易潜力研究  

Research on Trade Potential Between China and RCEP Countries

作　　者：万红先[1] 潘文娣 WAN Hong-xian;PAN Wen-di(School of International Economics&Trade,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第3期149-163,共15页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：2020年度安徽省高校社会科学研究重大项目(SK2020ZD007)“安徽与‘一带一路’国家的贸易效率与潜力研究”;安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金(ACYC2019040)“中美服务贸易逆差及其影响因素研究”。

摘　　要：文章运用ESI和G-L指数对2005—2019年中国和其他RCEP国家的统计数据进行对外贸易竞争性和互补性分析,并构建拓展的贸易引力模型,对中国与RCEP伙伴国的影响因素及其贸易潜力进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)中国同RCEP各国的贸易竞争性和互补性体现在不同的产品领域,且国家间差异较大;(2)中国与RCEP伙伴国的经济规模、首都距离、双方人口之比、对外开放度以及双方是否签订FTA、是否接壤均在不同程度上影响双方贸易的流量;(3)中国同RCEP各国的贸易潜力系数围绕1上下小幅波动,潜力尚有释放空间。基于此,就如何进一步深化中国同RCEP各国经贸合作,提升双边贸易潜力提出政策建议。This paper uses ESI and G-L indexes to analyze the foreign trade competitiveness and complementarity of China and other RCEP countries from 2005 to 2019.Moreover,an expanded trade gravity model is constructed to empirically analyze the influencing factors and trade potential between China and RCEP partners.The results show that:the trade competitiveness and complementarity between China and RCEP countries are reflected in different product fields,and there are great differences among countries;the economic scale of China and its partner countries,the distance between their capitals,the ratio of the population of both sides,the openness of the partner countries,and whether the two sides sign FTA and border all affect the bilateral trade flow to different degrees;the trade potential coefficient between China and RCEP countries fluctuates slightly around 1,indicating that there is still room to release the potential.In view of this,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on how to further deepen economic and trade cooperation between China and RCEP countries and enhance bilateral trade potential.

关 键 词：贸易竞争性 贸易互补性 贸易潜力 RCEP 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]