基于集对分析的煤矿水害风险评价  

Research on coal mine permeable risk assessment based on the set pair analysis method

作　　者：景国勋[1,2] 张静丽 贾智伟[1] 秦瑞琪 JING Guo-xun;ZHANG Jing-li;JIA Zhi-wei;QIN Rui-qi(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Anyang Institute of Technology,Anyang 455000,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]安阳工学院,河南安阳455000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第2期566-572,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U1904210)。

摘　　要：为了预防和控制煤矿水害事故发生,基于集对分析法对煤矿水害进行了风险评价研究。首先根据事故致因理论建立了水害风险评价指标体系;使用熵权法与超标倍数法组合赋权(CW)确定各指标的客观权重,并结合集对分析(SPA)理论构建煤矿水害风险评价模型,通过确定各指标单项联系度及评价对象加权平均联系度,分析水害风险各评价指标及评价对象的不确定性,以此确定评价对象风险等级。将构建的水害风险评价模型在焦煤集团L煤矿进行应用,评价结果与矿井实际情况基本吻合,该评价模型合理可行,可用于煤矿水害风险评价,为煤矿水害防治提供依据。In this paper,the risk assessment model of coal mine water disasters based on combination weighting and set pair analysis is put forward.Firstly,according to the accident causation theory,the water disaster accidents in coal mine and their influencing factors are analyzed.And the influencing factors are divided into five categories according to the analysis of four factors:human,machine,environment and Management.They are environmental factors:Pervious water source factor and pervious passage factor,factors of waterproof and drainage equipment,comprehensive quality of personnel and safety management.Secondly,on the basis of analyzing the risk factors of coal mine water disasters,the index system of coal mine water disaster risk assessment is established by using the risk factors.In order to eliminate the irrationality of subjective weighting in the process of evaluation and the conclusion error caused by only considering the differences between the evaluation standards,the objective weight of each index is determined by using the combination of entropy weight method and over-standard multiple method.Then,the index score and the standard set of risk classification form a set pair.The connection degree of the two sets in the set pair is determined by the connection measure method based on the linear trapezoid change,which is used to calculate the average connection degree between the evaluation object and the risk grade.Finally,in order to verify the rationality and feasibility of the CW-SPA-based Water Hazard Risk Assessment Model for coal mine,L Coal Mine of Coking Coal Group is selected as a case for evaluation and analysis.By this case,this paper explains how to use the risk assessment model of water disasters in coal mine.The assessment result of this case is almost in accordance with the actual situation of coal mine.The assessment model is reasonable and feasible,and can be used for water disaster risk assessment in coal mine.It provides scientific basis for the prevention and control of water disasters in c

关 键 词：安全工程 煤矿水害 集对分析 风险评价 组合赋权 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]