交通密集水域安全风险演化脆弱性分析  

Vulnerability analysis of safety risk evolution in traffic-intensive waters

作　　者：任振振 陈伟炯[1,3] 李新[3,4] 蒋少奇 张晓东 汪侃 REN Zhen-zhen;CHEN Wei-jiong;LI Xin;JIANG Shao-qi;ZHANG Xiao-dong;WANG Kan(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Department of Navigation Technology,Tianjin Maritime College,Tianjin 300350,China;Marine Public Safety Research Center,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration,Shanghai 200086,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]天津海运职业学院航海技术系,天津300350 [3]上海海事大学海洋公共安全研究中心,上海201306 [4]上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海201306 [5]上海海事局,上海200086

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第2期615-622,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52001196)。

摘　　要：交通密集水域事故频发,为揭示其安全风险演化规律,明确风险监控重点,以长江口水域为例进行了交通安全风险演化脆弱性分析。基于该水域交通事故案例,运用事件链分析技术构建了安全风险演化网络并解析其拓扑特性;提出了安全风险演化脆弱性概念,运用MATLAB仿真技术进行了定量评价;提出了一种关键脆弱因素辨识方法,并以演化网络为例验证了其可行性。结果表明:长江口水域交通安全风险极易传播扩散,少数关键因素失控易导致交通事故;船员违规违章、船员不合格不适任、强潮汐急潮流等风险因素对该水域交通安全风险演化起到关键作用。研究表明,提出的辨识方法合理可行,可适用于其他交通密集水域,为海事部门精准防控关键风险提供理论依据。This paper aims to reveal the evolution law of safety risk and clarify the key points of safety risk monitoring in traffic-intensive waters.The vulnerability analysis of safety risk evolution was carried out by taking the Yangtze River estuary as an example.Based on 81 traffic accident cases in this water,the safety risk evolution network in the Yangtze River estuary was constructed by using event chain analysis technology.Its topological characteristics were then analyzed by using the complex network theory.The concept of safety risk evolution vulnerability in traffic-intensive waters was proposed.Two indexes of network connectivity loss and efficiency loss were used to quantify it in the safety risk evolution network by using MATLAB simulation technology.A key vulnerability factor identification method of safety risk in traffic-intensive waters based on Cobb-Douglas function was proposed.The feasibility of this method was verified by comparison with node importance model and comprehensive centrality model according to the safety risk evolution network.The results show that the traffic safety risk evolution network in the Yangtze River estuary has the characteristics of small world and scale-free.It has low vulnerability under random attack and high vulnerability under deliberate attack.The traffic safety risk in this water is easy to spread,and a few key factors out of control are easy to lead to traffic accidents.The risk factors such as crew violation,crew disqualification and incompetence,strong tide and current play a key role in the evolution of traffic safety risk in this water.The key control of them will help to prevent the risk evolution and curb traffic accidents.The proposed key vulnerability factor identification method is reasonable and feasible.It can be applied to other traffic-intensive waters,provide a theoretical basis for the maritime department to accurately prevent and control key risks.

关 键 词：安全工程 交通密集水域 安全风险 演化 脆弱性 复杂网络 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]