中美贸易摩擦对我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量影响研究  

Impact of Seno-US Trade Friction on Container Throughput of China Sea Ports

作　　者：靳廉洁 沈益华[2] 高天航[2] 于滨 JIN Lianjie;SHEN Yihua;GAO Tianhang;YU Bin(Transportation Engineering College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Transport Planning and Research Institute,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《中国航海》2022年第1期73-78,共6页Navigation of China

摘　　要：海运是中美贸易的重要运输方式,中美贸易摩擦对我国外贸集装箱运输需求和沿海港口集装箱吞吐量产生影响。文章利用中国海关贸易数据库将中美集装箱货物分为机电、轻工等七大类,在分析美国加征关税商品清单的基础上,在多因素动态生成系数法基础上加以改进,构建了针对不同商品类别的生成系数测算模型,对中美贸易摩擦对我国集装箱生成量以及中美航线集装箱吞吐量的影响进行量化分析。测算结果表明,第一轮、第二轮共计2 500亿美元加税商品涉及集装箱生成量800万TEU,削减中美航线集装箱吞吐量120~300万TEU。最后,通过2018—2019年我国沿海港口中美航线实际完成情况,验证了方法的有效性。The impact of Sino-US trade friction on China sea ports are investigated according to the data from the trade database in China Customs. The data are divided into 7 categories. Generation coefficient calculation models for different categories are built after analyzing the additional tariffs list of US and improved with multiple factor dynamic generation coefficient. The Quantitative analysis of the impact is performed with the models. The analysis indicates that the commodity of total 250 billion US dollar for first round and second round tariff increase corresponds to 8 million TEU and 1.2-3 million TEU reduction is estimated. Actual data in the period of 2018-2019 proved the result.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 多因素动态生成系数法 集装箱吞吐量 中美航线 中国沿海港口 

分 类 号：K2[历史地理—历史学]