中国经济高速增长与居民消费滞后并存之谜--基于经济增长压力视角的解释  

The Mystery of the Coexistence of High Economic Growth and Lagging Consumption in China:An Explanation Based on the Perspective of Economic Growth Pressure

作　　者：韦韡[1] 蔡运坤 WEI Wei;CAI Yun-kun(School of Economics,Guangxi University for Nationalities,Nanning 530006,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学经济学院,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《消费经济》2022年第1期31-43,共13页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(17BJL104);广西高等学校千名中青年骨干教师培育计划人文社会科学类立项课题(2021QGRW029);广西民族大学相思湖青年学者创新团队(2020RSCXSHQN04)。

摘　　要：消费是经济增长的“稳定器”与“压舱石”,但消费不足一直是制约中国经济增长突出的结构性问题。文章基于晋升锦标赛理论,采用2014-2018年三轮中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)与宏观层面的匹配数据,考察了经济增长压力对居民消费的影响。研究发现,经济增长压力与居民消费间存在显著的倒U型关系,且通过工具变量法与一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。强烈的增长压力对低市场化地区居民消费的挤出效应更显著,但却促进了高市场化地区的居民消费,由此加剧了居民消费不平等。机制分析表明,强烈的经济增长压力会导致地方政府采用投资驱动式增长与土地财政依赖的策略,以短期内显著推高GDP。此外,地方官员晋升空间相对有限,而为了争取机会,以“层层加码”“硬约束”与“软约束”的方式制定经济增长目标将显著挤出居民消费水平;且在晋升激烈驱动的现实经济增长压力下,晋升希望更大的任期小于4年的省委书记采取的政策更加倾向于短期。研究结论为优化地方政府绩效考核体系与制定宏观经济政策以刺激居民消费提供了理论支持。Consumption is the"stabilizer"and"ballast"of economic growth,but insufficient consumption has been a prominent structural problem of China’s economic growth.Based on the promotion tournament theory,the impact of economic growth pressure on consumption is examined using matched data from three rounds of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and macro-level data from 2014 to 2018.It is found that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth pressure and residential consumption,which still holds after the instrumental variables approach and a series of robustness tests.Strong growth pressures crowd out residential consumption more significantly in low-market areas,but boost residential consumption in high-market areas,thereby increasing residential consumption inequality.The mechanism analysis suggests that strong growth pressure leads local governments to adopt the strategy of investment-driven growth and land finance dependence to significantly push up GDP in the short run.In addition,local officials have relatively limited room for promotion,and in order to fight for opportunities,setting economic growth targets in a"cascading","hard constraint"and"soft constraint"manner will significantly squeeze out residents’consumption levels,and under the realistic economic growth pressure driven by fierce promotion,provincial party secretaries with less than 4 years’tenure,who have greater promotion hopes,adopt policies that are more short-term oriented.The findings provide theoretical support for optimizing the performance appraisal system of local governments and formulating macroeconomic policies to stimulate residential consumption.

关 键 词：经济增长目标 经济增长压力 居民消费 晋升锦标赛 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]