跨越贫困陷阱:易地搬迁农户的收入流动及其影响因素  

Escape the Poverty Trap:Income Mobility of Relocation and Settlement Households and Its Determinants

作　　者：李聪[1] 王磊[1] 王金天 张飞鹏 LI Cong;WANG Lei;WANG Jin-tian;ZHANG Fei-peng(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2022年第5期102-114,共13页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“生态脆弱地区可持续发展政策评估与管理”(72022014);国家自然科学基金面上项目“生计恢复力视角下易地扶贫搬迁对象脱贫模式、返贫风险与可持续发展政策创新研究”(71973104);清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目“多维贫困和不平等视角下中国经济益贫式增长机制研究”(201910)。

摘　　要：易地搬迁打破了自然空间对搬迁人口的掣肘,有助于普遍增加其收入。与此同时,穷人能否扭转在收入分配中的不利地位更关乎社会效率和公平。利用陕南农户调查数据,实证分析了易地搬迁农户收入流动性及其影响因素。将家庭收入分为七个层级和低中高三组,在此基础上把收入流动状况分为四种类型,综合收入转换矩阵等多元统计方法研究表明:搬迁户的收入流动性存在显著的组间差异,搬迁后,最低收入层级和最高收入层级的农户比重都有所下降,中等收入组农户比重进一步上升;尽管处于收入分布底端10%的家庭有较大比例实现了向上流动,整体上搬迁户的收入流动性仍偏低。多元Logit模型分析表明,家庭在业人数、平均受教育程度、有无加入合作社、信贷可得性、家庭负担率、风险容忍度、搬迁年份、生计策略和交通可及性对搬迁户收入流动具有显著影响。为此,从增加就业机会、培育内生动力、强化组织支持三个方面提出了促进移民收入向上流动的政策建议。The anti-poverty relocation and settlement programme enables the relocated population to escape the harsh natural environment and help to generally increase their income.At the same time,it is of greater significance to social efficiency and social equity whether the poor can reverse their disadvantageous position in income distribution.Using the survey data of rural households in southern Shaanxi,this paper empirically analyzes the income mobility of relocated households and its determinants.We divide household income into seven levels and three groups of low,middle and high.On this basis,we classify income mobility into four types.Research on comprehensive income conversion matrix and other multivariate statistical methods show that there are significant group differences in income mobility of relocated households.After the relocation,the proportion of households at the lowest income level and the highest income level has decreased,and the proportion of middle-income households has increased;although a larger proportion of households at the bottom 10%of the income distribution have achieved upward mobility,the income mobility of relocated households is still low in the overall sense.Multivariate logit model estimates show that the number of households in employment,average education level,whether joined a cooperative,credit availability,dependency ratio,risk tolerance,the year of relocation,livelihood strategy,and transportation accessibility have significant impacts on the income mobility of relocated households.To this end,policy recommendations to promote the upward mobility of migrants’income have been proposed from the three aspects of increasing employment opportunities,cultivating endogenous motivation,and strengthening organizational support.First,we should do everything possible to increase employment and promote the transformation and upgrading of livelihood of migrants.With the help of appropriate industrial support policies,we should cultivate a number of industrial clusters suitable for local end

关 键 词：跨越贫困 易地搬迁 收入流动性 多元LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]