塔里木盆地生长季ET0的时空变化特征及其敏感性分析  

Spatiotemporal Variation and Analysis Sensitivity of Reference Evapotranspiration during Crop Growing Season in the Tarim Basin

作　　者：王大刚 于洋[1,2,3,4] MALIK Ireneusz WISTUBA Malgorzata 张敏 闫小月 孙凌霄 于瑞德[1,2,3,4] WANG Da-gang;YU Yang;MALIK Ireneusz;WISTUBA Malgorzata;ZHANG Min;YAN Xiao-yue;SUN Ling-xiao;YU Rui-de(State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology/Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems,Cele 848300,China;Polish-Chinese Centre for Environmental Research,Institute of Earth Sciences,University of Silesia in Katowice,Bankowa 12,40-007 Katowice,Poland)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所/荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]新疆策勒荒漠草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,策勒848300 [4]波兰西里西亚大学地球科学学院中波环境研究中心,波兰卡托维兹12,40-007

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2022年第5期340-352,共13页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中国科学院“西部青年学者”B类(2018-XBQNXZ-B-017);中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所高层次人才培育计划专项(Y871171)。

摘　　要：基于塔里木盆地19个气象站2000−2019年生长季逐日气象数据,采用FAO−56PM公式计算各站逐日ET0,运用敏感系数、ArcGIS反距离权重插值、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,对该地区ET0的时空变化规律及ET0对关键气象因子的敏感性进行分析。结果表明:(1)近20a来,塔里木盆地生长季ET0日均值在空间上呈北低南高的趋势,多年ET0日均值从大到小依次为6、7、5、8、4、9和10月,其值分别为5.84、5.73、5.29、4.95、4.23、3.65和2.17mm⋅d−1,气候倾向率分别为−0.09、0.24、0.11、−0.07、0.16、0.07和0.08mm⋅10a−1,ET0日均值在盆地中、西部以负倾向率为主,盆地东部则以正倾向率为主。(2)整个生长季,塔里木盆地的相对湿度逐月增加,2m处风速逐月减小,日照时数则呈先增加后降低的趋势,最低气温和最高气温均呈倒U形分布,且均在7月达到最大值。相对湿度的变化以负倾向率为主,2m处风速和最低气温的变化以正倾向率为主,日照时数和最高气温变化的倾向率无明显规律。(3)在生长季(4−10月),塔里木盆地ET0对关键气象因子的敏感性表现为最高气温>相对湿度>日照时数>2m处风速>最低气温,ET0对最低气温的敏感性以较低敏感性为主,对其余气象因子均以高敏感性为主。ET0对最低气温和最高气温最敏感的月份是7月,而对相对湿度、2m处风速和日照时数最敏感的月份分别是10月、4月和8月。ET0对相对湿度的敏感系数绝对值的空间分布呈由北向南递减的趋势,对2m处风速和最高气温的敏感系数均以塔克拉玛干沙漠为高值中心,对日照时数无明显规律,对最低气温则呈由西向东递减的趋势。This study was based on the daily observation data of 19 meteorological stations in the Tarim basin during the crop growing season from 2000 to 2019.The FAO-56PM formula was used to calculate the daily ET0 of each station.The sensitivity coefficient,ArcGIS inverse distance weight interpolation,climate trend rate and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation and the sensitivity of ET0 to key meteorological factors.The results indicate that:(1)during the past 20 years,the daily mean values of ET0 in the crop growing season are generally lower in the north and higher in the south of the Tarim basin.The daily mean values of ET0 in the crop growing season were 5.84mm⋅d−1 in June,5.73mm⋅d−1 in July,5.29mm⋅d−1 in May,4.95mm⋅d−1 in August,4.23mm⋅d−1 in April,3.65mm⋅d−1 in September and 2.17 mm⋅d−1 in October,respectively.The climate tendency rates of the daily mean value of ET0 were−0.09,0.24,0.11,−0.07,0.16,0.07 and 0.08mm⋅10y−1,respectively.These rates were dominated by negative dip rates in the middle and west of the basin,and positive dip rates in the east of the basin;(2)During the crop growing season,relative humidity increased and wind speed at 2m decreased by each month.Sunshine duration firstly increased and then decreased.Minimum temperature and maximum temperature showed an inverted U-shaped distribution,and both reached their maximum values in July.The change of relative humidity was dominated by negative trend rates.The change of wind speed at 2m and minimum temperature were dominated by positive trend rates,while the trend rate of sunshine duration and maximum temperature had no obvious trend;and(3)During the crop growing season,the sensitivity of ET0 to the key meteorological factors in the Tarim basin were:maximum temperature>relative humidity>sunshine duration>wind speed at 2m>minimum temperature.The sensitivity of ET0 to the minimum temperature was negligible,while the sensitivity to other meteorological factors were high.ET0 is

关 键 词：塔里木盆地 参考作物蒸散量 PENMAN-MONTEITH公式 时空变化 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]