基于空间杜宾模型的电子商务与商贸流通业集聚关系分析  

Analysis on the Agglomeration Relationship Between E-commerce and Commercial Circulation Industry Based on Spatial Dobbin Model

作　　者：程震[1] 杨剑[1] CHENG Zhen;YANG Jian(School of Business,Chuzhou Polytechnic,Chuzhou Anhui 239000)

机构地区：[1]滁州职业技术学院商学院,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《甘肃高师学报》2022年第2期31-34,共4页Journal of Gansu Normal Colleges

基　　金：2020年度安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目“滁州市农村电商与电商物流企业联动发展的结构性改革研究”(SK2020A0763);2020年度安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目“滁州市农村电商与电商物流企业联动发展的结构性改革研究”(SK2020A0763).

摘　　要：通过选用中国31个省(市)2011—2019年相关数据,利用探索性空间数据分析法和空间杜宾模型对电子商务与商贸流通业集聚之间的关系进行实证分析.结果表明:电子商务与商贸流通业集聚存在显著的正向空间相关性,各省市多集中在第一和第三象限;电子商务对本地商贸流通业集聚具有显著的促进作用,对周边地区商贸流通业集聚存在显著的负空间溢出性;技术水平改善、消费水平提高可以带来正的空间溢出效应,而城市化水平和经济发展水平会带来负的空间溢出效应.By selecting the relevant data of 31 provinces(cities)in China from 2011 to 2019,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between e-commerce and commerce circulation industry agglomeration by using exploratory spatial data analysis method and spatial Dobbin model.The results show that:there is a significant positive spatial correlation between e-commerce and commerce circulation industry agglomeration,most provinces and cities are concentrated in the first and third quadrants;e-commerce has a significant role in promoting the agglomeration of local trade and circulation industry,and has a significant negative spatial spillover to the agglomeration of trade and circulation industry in the surrounding areas;the improvement of technology level and consumption level can bring positive spatial spillover effect,while the level of urbanization and economic development will bring negative spatial spillover effect.

关 键 词：电子商务 空间溢出效应 商贸流通业集聚 空间杜宾模型 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]