气候和社会经济因素对全球畜禽氮排放的驱动研究  

Nitrogen emissions from livestock production driven by climate and socioeconomic factors

作　　者：程露曦 任琛琛 张秀明 谷保静[2,4] CHENG Luxi;REN Chenchen;ZHANG Xiuming;GU Baojing(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Policy Simulation Laboratory,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Agriculture and Food,The University of Melbourne,Melbourne VIC 3010,Australia;College of Environmental and Resource Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058 [2]浙江大学政策仿真实验室,杭州310058 [3]墨尔本大学农业与食品学院,墨尔本VIC 3010,澳大利亚 [4]浙江大学环境与资源学院,杭州310058

出　　处：《农业资源与环境学报》2022年第3期510-519,共10页Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会国际(地区)合作与交流项目(42061124001)。

摘　　要：畜禽氮(N)排放是全球人为氮排放的主要来源,探究其主要影响因素对畜禽氮减排具有重要意义。本研究通过分析全球166个国家畜禽的氮排放强度和氮利用率(NUE)明确畜禽氮排放特征,并运用计量经济学方法探究气候和社会经济因素对畜禽各阶段(包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两个阶段)氮排放强度的影响。结果发现,当前全球全链条畜禽的总氮(活性氮,包括N_(2)O、NH_(3)、NO_(3)^(-)和NO_(x)四种氮素形式)排放量为98 Tg,总NUE(包括饲料种植和畜禽养殖两阶段的全链条NUE)为7%,其中用于饲料种植的氮排放占78%。畜禽种类和养殖方式对氮排放强度(以畜禽蛋白质质量计)影响很大,散养鸡氮排放强度最高(1.9 kg·kg^(-1)),山羊和绵羊的氮排放强度最低(0.6 kg·kg^(-1)),反刍动物主要以草和秸秆为食,饲料种植阶段氮排放较低。全球鸡的总NUE最高(9%),奶牛和奶水牛的总NUE最低(5%),单胃动物的饲料转化率较高,因而总NUE高。畜禽氮排放与人均GDP、城市化率和降雨量呈极显著的正相关关系,与温度相关性不显著。研究表明:社会经济发展提升了饲料生产阶段的氮排放强度,但降低了畜禽养殖阶段的氮排放强度并推动了畜禽养殖业的发展。目前饲料生产阶段的氮排放未与经济发展脱钩,未来通过优化畜禽饲料管理推动氮减排至关重要。Livestock nitrogen(N)emissions are the main source of global anthropogenic N emissions.It is crucial to investigate its main influencing factors for livestock N emission reduction.Here,we analyzed the N emission intensity and nitrogen use efficiency(NUE)of livestock in 166 countries worldwide to clarify the characteristics of livestock N emissions,and used econometrics to investigate the influence of major climatic and socioeconomic factors on the N emission intensity at all stages(containing feed production and livestock raising stages).We found that global total livestock N emissions(namely reactive nitrogen,including N_(2)O,NH_(3),NO_(3)^(-) and NO_(x))from the whole production chain were 98 Tg(78%from feed production),with an overall NUE(NUE over the whole production chain including feed production and livestock raising stages)of 7%.Different livestock types and feeding methods had influences on the N emission intensity(N emission amount per kilogram of protein),with the highest from backyard chickens(1.9 kg·kg^(-1))and the lowest from goats and sheep(0.6 kg·kg^(-1)).Ruminants mainly feed on grass and straw with lower N emissions.Chickens had the highest NUE(9%)and dairy cattle and dairy buffalo had the lowest NUE(5%)due to higher feed conversion rates in monogastric animals.Livestock N emissions showed significant positive correlations with GDP per capita,urbanization and rainfall,and insignificant regressions with temperature.The study showed socioeconomic development increased N emission intensity in the feed production stage,but had the opposite effect in the livestock raising stage and promote the development of animal husbandry.The N emissions from feed production have still not decoupled with economic development although it reduced livestock raising N emissions significantly.Thus,it is essential to optimize livestock feed management to promote N emission reduction in the future.

关 键 词：畜禽 氮排放 氮利用率 影响因素 种养结合 

分 类 号：X713[环境科学与工程—环境工程]