2035年共同富裕阶段目标实现指数监测研究  

Statistical Monitoring of the Realization of the Phased Goal of Common Prosperity by 2035

作　　者：吕光明[1] 陈欣悦 Lv Guangming;Chen Xinyue

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院和国民核算研究院 [2]北京师范大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2022年第4期3-20,共18页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“贫困退出考核评估的统计测度研究”(17ZDA095)。

摘　　要：在“两个一百年”奋斗目标的历史交汇期,党的十九大提出了到2035年“全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐”的总体奋斗目标和“共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展”的具体实现建议。在此背景下,监测2035年共同富裕实质性进展阶段目标的实现过程已成为迫切需要解决的问题。本文在现有研究达成的富裕水平和共享程度两个维度共识的基础上,分别从世界银行、联合国开发计划署、联合国统计司、联合国工业发展组织和国际货币基金组织五大国际组织的国家发展分类变化和中国收入分配近期变动特征的剖析出发,分别探讨两大维度监测的重点问题。在此基础上,借鉴UNDP的经不平等调整的人类发展指数(IHDI)做法,尝试给出2035年阶段目标实现的综合指数模型框架,并进行相关的收入富裕水平实现指数、其他富裕水平匹配指数、收入共享程度指数和公共服务共享程度指数设计。初步的测算分析结果表明,该综合指数模型基本能够满足2035年阶段目标实现的政策监测需求,但仍有一定的扩充改进空间。At the historical intersection of the “two centenary” goals, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the overall goal of “taking solid steps towards common prosperity for all the people” by 2035 and specific suggestions for the realization of “more obvious substantive progress towards common prosperity”. In this context, monitoring the process of achieving the phased goal of common prosperity by 2035 urgently needs to be solved. Based on the consensus reached in the existing research on the two dimensions of prosperity level and sharing degree, this paper discusses the key issues of monitoring the two dimensions from the analysis of the changes in national development classifications of the five international organizations: the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Statistics Division, United Nations Industrial Development Organization and International Monetary Fund as well as the recent changes in China’s income distribution. On this basis,using UNDP’s inequality adjusted human development index(IHDI) for reference, this paper attempts to give a comprehensive index model framework for the realization of China’s common prosperity phased goal by 2035, and design the relevant income wealth level realization index, other wealth level matching index, income sharing degree index and public service sharing degree index. The preliminary calculation and analysis results show that this comprehensive index can basically meet the policy monitoring needs of China’s phased goal by 2035, but there is still room for expansion and improvement.

关 键 词：共同富裕 中等发达国家 共享程度 综合指数模型 

分 类 号：F210[经济管理—国民经济]