跨境资本流动典型事实、资本流动管理政策演变及启示  

Typical Facts of Cross-Border Capital Flow,Evolution of Capital Flow Management Policy and Enlightenment

作　　者：张少东 Zhang Shaodong

机构地区：[1]中国工商银行博士后科研工作站,北京100031

出　　处：《西南金融》2022年第5期53-66,共14页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：本文提炼分析全球跨境资本流动典型事实,并研究包括资本管制和宏观审慎政策在内的资本流动管理政策演变,同时探析资本流动管理有效性和溢出效应机理。研究发现,总资本流动规模较大且波动性显著,并呈现出顺周期特征。不同类型资本流动在跨境资本流动中地位存在差异。此外,资本流动背后呈现明显部门异质性特征。20世纪90年代以来全球主要国家资本项目开放程度总体呈上升趋势,但面临跨境资本流动大幅变化时,各国政府和IMF等组织也开始认识到资本流动管理的重要性。在2008年全球金融危机期间及之后,宏观审慎政策使用频率越来越高,逆周期调节作用凸显。一国经济基本面情况、资本流动管理政策使用优先顺序、与宏观经济政策是否协调配合等因素均能影响资本流动管理有效性,同时资本流动管理政策溢出效应日益显现。基于研究结论,提出政策建议:第一,完善跨境资本流动管理框架,合理利用政策工具,重视国际间政策协调;第二,适时稳步推进金融开放,坚持循序渐进开放策略;第三,继续深化金融体系改革,增强风险抵御能力。This paper extracts and analyzes typical facts about global cross-border capital flows,studies the evolution of capital flow management policies,including capital control and macroprudential policies,and analyzes the effectiveness of capital flow management and the mechanism of spillover effects.The study finds that the total capital flow is large and volatile,and exhibits pro-cyclical characteristics.Different types of capital flows have different positions in cross-border capital flows.In addition,there are obvious characteristics of sectoral heterogeneity behind capital flows.Since the 1990s,the capital account openness of major countries in the world has generally shown an upward trend.However,when facing the significant changes of cross-border capital flows,governments and organizations such as IMF have begun to realize the importance of capital flow management.During and after the 2008 global financial crisis,macro-prudential policies were used more frequently,and the role of counter-cyclical adjustment became prominent.Factors such as a country's economic fundamentals,the priority of capital flow management policies,and whether they are coordinated with macroeconomic policies can all affect the effectiveness of capital flow management,and the spillover effects of capital flow management policies are increasingly apparent.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:first,improve the cross-border capital flow management framework,make rational use of policy tools,and pay attention to international policy coordination;second,steadily promote financial opening in a timely manner,and adhere to the gradual opening strategy;third,continue to deepen the reform of the financial system to enhance risk resistance.

关 键 词：跨境资本流动 资本流动管理 资本管制 宏观审慎 逆周期调节 资本项目开放 溢出效应 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学] F831.7