基于双系统估计量的人口普查净误差估计  

Estimation of Net Census Coverage Error Based on Dual System Estimator

作　　者：胡桂华 叶宝红 漆莉 HU Guihua;YE Baohong;QI Li(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Key Laboratory of Economic and Social Applied Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067;Economic Research Center of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze-River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2022年第3期676-696,共21页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：2021年国家社科基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文一般项目(21FTJB002)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对中国和其他许多国家在使用双系统估计量时所存在的未对总体人口事后分层和未估计小区域净误差等诸多问题,从理论和实际操作层面构造基于捕获-再捕获模型的双系统估计量及合成双系统估计量.采用数理模型分析技术和抽样推断方法,研究双系统估计量,双系统估计量的抽样方差估计,以及小区域的净误差估计.研究结果表明:双系统估计量须在事后层建立,否则低估或高估总体实际人数;双系统估计量属于复杂估计量,分层刀切法适合于近似计算其抽样方差;不能忽视小区域的净误差估计.研究创新是,设计了适合于中国人口特点的事后分层方案,为科学有效地使用双系统估计量奠定了理论基础.研究价值在于,所构造的双系统估计量及其合成双系统估计量有望应用于中国2030年人口普查净误差估计.为便于读者理解,通过模拟,全面演示双系统估计量及合成双系统估计量的计算过程.In response to many problems in the use of dual-system estimators in China and many other countries,such as failure to post-stratify the population and failure to estimate net error of small areas,a dual-system estimator based on the capture-recapture model and a synthetic dual-system estimator are constructed from the theoretical and practical levels.Dual-system estimator,its sampling variance estimation,and net error estimation of small areas,are studied by mathematical model analysis techniques and sampling inference methods.The research results show that:The dual-system estimator must be established in a post-stratum,otherwise the true number of people is underestimated or overestimated;the dual-system estimator is a complex estimator,and the stratified Jack-Knife method is suitable for approximate calculation of its sampling variance;the net error estimation of small areas cannot be ignored.The research innovation is that a post-stratification scheme which is suitable for the characteristics of China’s population is designed to lay a theoretical foundation for scientific and effective use of the dual-system estimator.The research value is that the constructed dual-system estimator and the synthetic dual-system estimator are expected to be applied in the estimation of 2030 net error in China.To facilitate readers’ understanding,calculation processes of the dual-system estimator and synthetic dual-system estimator are fully demonstrated through a simulation.

关 键 词：政府统计 抽样调查 抽样方差 

分 类 号：C924.25[社会学—人口学] O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]