工业园区经济能源环境耦合的系统动力学研究  

Research on the system dynamics of economic-energy-environment (3E) coupling in industrial parks

作　　者：张昕 李艳萍[1] 赵亚洲 智静[1] 杨奕 陈晨[1] ZHANG Xin;LI Yanping;ZHAO Yazhou;ZHI Jing;YANG Yi;CHEN Chen(Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences)

机构地区：[1]国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,中国环境科学研究院

出　　处：《环境工程技术学报》2022年第3期948-956,共9页Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0214401);内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2020ZD0013)。

摘　　要：工业园区是企业的集聚地,同时也是污染的高发地,工业园区的生态化发展对区域绿色发展意义重大。鉴于工业园区发展过程中的经济、能源、环境多系统之间的复杂关系,构建了经济–能源–环境(3E)系统动力学模型,在模型有效性的基础上以某国家级生态工业园区为案例进行动态仿真。针对案例园区现状,设定了基准、节能减碳、减污、能源结构调整、经济适度增长、加大节能减碳力度6种情景进行趋势预测,并对照HJ 274—2015《国家生态工业示范园区标准》进行绩效评价。结果表明:工业园区3E系统动力学模型可以用于园区生态化发展的趋势预测,通过经济增速、能耗强度、能源结构、减排因子等关键因子的调控,可对其发展情景进行优化,提出一定条件下的园区发展增速与节能减排力度,为园区规划及发展提供科学指导和决策支持。Industrial parks are not only the gathering place of enterprises,but also the high incidence of pollution.So the ecologically oriented development of industrial parks is of great significance to regional green development.In view of the complex relationship among economic,energy and environmental systems in the development of industrial parks,a system dynamics model of the economy,energy,and environment(3E)was developed,based on the effectiveness of the model,a national eco-industrial park was taken as an example for dynamic simulation.According to the current situation of the case park,the development trend of the industrial park was predicted by providing six scenarios,i.e.benchmark,energy conservation and carbon reduction,pollution reduction,energy structure adjustment,moderate economic growth and increasing energy conservation and carbon reduction.Then,the prediction results were evaluated according to the Standard for National Demonstration Eco-industrial Parks(HJ 274-2015).The results showed that the 3E system dynamics model of industrial parks could be used to predict the development trend of the parks.Through the regulation of key factors such as economic growth rate,energy consumption intensity,energy structure and emission reduction factors,the development scenarios could be optimized.The park development growth rate and the energy conservation and emission reduction intensity under certain conditions could be put forward,so as to provide scientific guidance and decision support for park planning and development.

关 键 词：工业园区 经济–能源–环境(3E)系统 系统动力学 趋势预测 

分 类 号：X021[环境科学与工程]