中美贸易战背景下“一带一路”沿线国家对中国出口贸易的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of Countries along“One Belt and One Road”on China’s Export Trade under the Background of Sino-US Trade War

作　　者：严莹 张晨 YAN Ying;ZHANG Chen(School of Marxism,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;Department of International Economics,University of International Relations,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学马克思主义学院,南京211106 [2]国际关系学院国际经济系,北京100091

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第3期154-160,共7页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：近年来,中美双方之间的贸易战严重损害了中美双方的经贸关系,为了积极应对贸易战带来的冲击,国家大力推进“一带一路”倡议的实施,积极与周边国家开展经贸合作。为此,基于贸易引力模型与国际贸易模型,评估中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易现状及成效,实证分析“一带一路”倡议在中美贸易战背景下的出口转移效应。研究结果显示,贸易战对中美双方的进出口贸易、GDP总量与福利水平都有显著负面影响,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家开展的经贸合作,一定程度上对冲了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。In recent years,the trade war between China and the United States has seriously damaged the economic and trade relations between the two countries.In order to deal with the impact of the trade war,the state has vigorously promoted the strategy of“One Belt and One Road”and actively carried out economic and trade cooperation with the neighboring countries,trying to reduce the impact of the trade war.Therefore,based on the trade gravity model and the international trade model,this paper evaluates the trade status and effectiveness of China and countries along“One Belt and One Road”,and then empirically analyzes the export transfer effect of One Belt and One Road economic and trade strategy under the background of the Sino-US trade war.The results show that trade war has a significant negative impact on the import and export trade,total GDP and welfare level of China and the United States.The economic and trade cooperation between China and countries along One Belt and One Road has,to some extent,offset the negative impact of the Sino-US war,and all trade indicators show a significant positive correlation.Combined with the analysis results,the countermeasures and suggestions for the current trade war and“One Belt and One Road”economic and trade strategy are given.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 贸易战 出口贸易 转移效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]