基于易损性方法的核电厂抗震裕量评估的不确定性分析  

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ON ASEISMIC MARGIN APPRAISALS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS BASED ON THE SFA METHOD

作　　者：李晓东[1,3] 何力[2] 郑泽华 李永录 LI Xiaodong;HE Li;ZHENG Zehua;LI Yonglu(Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Yangjiang Nuclear Power Co.,Ltd.,Yanjiang 529941,China;Central Research Institute of Building&Construction Co.,Ltd.,MCC Group,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084 [2]阳江核电有限公司,广东阳江529941 [3]中冶建筑研究总院有限公司,北京100088

出　　处：《工业建筑》2021年第12期19-23,共5页Industrial Construction

摘　　要：由于地震的不确定性,存在超设计水准地震发生的可能性,需要掌握核电厂抵抗超设计水准地震作用的能力。国际上均采用抗震裕度评估方法来评估核电厂在遭受超设计水准地震作用下的承载裕度。易损性方法是一种计算核电厂高置信度低失效概率值(HCLPF值)的方法,采用易损性模型,根据所得数据求取结构、系统和部件的中位值抗震能力和不确定性系数,进而求出HCLPF值。提出了一种基于非中心t分布理论计算HCLPF的方法,该方法无需假设认知不确定性所服从的分布,从而避免认知不确定性相关参数的取值对HCLPF值计算结果影响较大的问题。Due to the uncertainty of earthquake, the possibility of earthquake exceeding the design level may occure, so it is necessary to master the capacity of nuclear power plants to resist earthquake exceeding the design level. The aseismic margin analysis method was used internationally to evaluate the bearing margin of nuclear power plants subjected to earthquakes beyond the design level. The SFA method was an effective calculation method with the high degree of confidence and low probability of the failure value(HCLPF value) for nuclear power plants, in which the median aseismic capacity and uncertainty coefficient of the structure, system and members were calculated by the SFA according to obtained data, and then the HCLPF value was also calculated. A calculation method of HCLPF based on non-central distribution t was proposed, which did not need to assume the distribution of cognitive uncertainty, to avoid the problem that the value of relevant parameters of cognitive uncertainty had a great impact on the calculation results of HCLPF.

关 键 词：超设计水准地震 抗震裕度评估 高置信度 低失效概率值 

分 类 号：TM623[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TU352.11[建筑科学—结构工程]