基于ROC曲线的安徽省农村地区老年人生命质量及拐点年龄分析  

Analysis of quality of life and inflection point age of the elderly in rural areas of Anhui Province based on ROC curve

作　　者：朱维正 张敏 何欣然 孙谦 刘雨阳 丁宏 ZHU Wei-zheng;ZHANG Min;HE Xin-ran;SUN Qian;LIU Yu-yang;DING Hong(Department of Health Service Management,School of Health Service Management,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学卫生管理学院卫生管理系,合肥230032

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2022年第5期595-599,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社会科学研究项目SK2018A0165。

摘　　要：目的评估安徽省农村地区老年人生命质量及其拐点年龄的性别差异,为提高农村老年人生命质量提供参考。方法采用多阶段分层整群抽样法抽取安徽省18个村为调查现场,共调查老年人3336名,采用欧洲五维度健康量表(five-dimensional European quality of health scale,EQ-5D)评估老年人生命质量,受试者工作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线预测老年人生命质量拐点年龄,二元Logistic回归分析模型验证拐点年龄对生命质量的预测能力。结果健康效用值男性(0.774±0.200)分,女性(0.721±0.205)分,男性高于女性(t=7.500,P<0.001);老年人“疼痛不适”维度存在困难比例最高;总体生命质量拐点年龄男性72.5岁,女性70.5岁;Logistic回归分析模型结果表明拐点年龄对生命质量转变具有预测价值。结论安徽省农村地区老年人男性生命质量优于女性,女性生命质量拐点年龄早于男性。应关注老年人慢性疼痛及心理健康问题,以此提高生命质量。Objective To evaluate the quality of life of the elderly in rural areas of Anhui Province and the gender differences of their inflection point age,to provide a reference for improving the quality of life of the elderly in rural areas.Methods A total of 3336 older adults were investigated in 18 villages in Anhui Province by using a multistage stratified cluster random sampling method.The quality of life of the elderly was assessed by the five-dimensional European quality of health scale(EQ-5D),and the inflection point age of quality of life of the elderly in different genders was predicted by the receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve.A binary Logistic regression analysis model was used to verify the predictive ability of inflection point age on quality of life.Results The health utility value of men was(0.774±0.200)and that of women was(0.721±0.205),which was higher in men than in women(t=7.500,P<0.001);Whether male or female,the proportion of difficulty in the dimension of"pain and discomfort"was the highest;The inflection point age of quality of life was 72.5 years for men and 70.5 years for women;Logistic regression analysis model showed that inflection point age had a predictive value for the change of quality of life.Conclusions The quality of life of the elderly men in rural areas of Anhui Province is better than that of women,and the inflection point age of all dimensions of the quality of life of women is earlier than that of men.We should pay attention to the chronic pain and mental health of the elderly to improve the quality of life.

关 键 词：农村地区 老年人 生命质量 ROC曲线 拐点年龄 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]