中美台海博弈的风险变数和危机管控  

U.S.-China Rivalry in Taiwan Strait:Risk Variables and Crisis Management

作　　者：曹群 Cao Qun

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院美国研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2022年第3期84-104,I0004,共22页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“外国防空识别区现行规则研究”(编号:21FGJB015)。

摘　　要：近年来,美国不断纵容支持“台独”势力,大肆炒作中国大陆对台“军事施压”,造成台海局势高度紧张。拜登政府延续了特朗普政府的“以台制华”战略,在继承前任诸多涉台政策“遗产”基础上“加倍下注”,通过“切香肠”方式日益掏空虚化一个中国政策,与盟友加强涉台勾连,大搞“三海联动”,甚至在俄乌冲突爆发后行动进一步升级。随着美国对华全面战略竞争的推展,中国台湾当局“挟洋谋独”行动或将加码,美国在涉台问题上小动作也将更多,今后中美台海博弈面临的风险变数将会持续增大,中美在台海“冲突”的可能性攀升。中美有必要协商在“战略”和“技术”层面上共同推进建立信任措施与危机管控合作。In recent years,the United States has continued to indulge the forces that support“Taiwan independence”and hyped up China's Mainland's“military pressure”on Taiwan,which caused high tension in the Taiwan Strait.The Biden Administration has not changed the Trump Administration's strategy of“using Taiwan to contain China”,but“doubled the bets”on the basis of inheriting the“legacy”of his predecessor's many Taiwan-related policies,and increasingly hollowed out the one-China policy through“salami slicing tactics”.The U.S.has also strengthened its links with its allies on the Taiwan Question,vigorously engaged in the linkage of the East and South China Sea,which even further escalated after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Amid the promotion of the U.S.'s comprehensive strategic competition with China,Taiwan authorities may take more actions to seek“Taiwan independence”by colluding with external forces,and the U.S.will engage in“playing more little tricks”on Taiwan-related issues.Henceforth,the risk variables in the Taiwan Strait are likely to increase,the probability of“conflict incidents”between the U.S.and China will also continue to climb.It is necessary for China and the U.S.to negotiate and jointly promote cooperation on confidence building measures as well as crisis management at the“strategic”and“technical”levels.

关 键 词：中美关系 中国台湾问题 台海博弈 一个中国原则 海上危机管控 防空识别区 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]