“一江两河”地区藏族农户气候变化感知与适应行为影响因素研究  

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Climate Change Perception and Adaptive Behavior of Tibetan Farmers in "One River and Two River Streams" Area, Tibet

作　　者：郭健斌[1,2] 时嘉宇 侯磊[1] GUO Jianbin;SHI Jiayu;HOU Lei(Resources&Environment College,Tibet Agriculture&Animal Husbandry University,Nyingchi,860000,China;Research Center for Rural Economic Development in Tibet,Tibet Agriculture&Animal Husbandry University,Nyingchi,860000,China;Plant Sciences College,Tibet Agriculture&Animal Husbandry University,Nyingchi,860000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏农牧学院资源与环境学院,西藏林芝860000 [2]西藏农牧学院西藏农村经济发展研究中心,西藏林芝860000 [3]西藏农牧学院植物科学学院,西藏林芝860000

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2022年第1期23-31,共9页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西藏项目(18XZJAZH001)。

摘　　要：利用西藏“一江两河”流域467位农户的实地调研数据,通过构建Heckman Probit两阶段模型,定量分析藏族农户对气候变化的感知和因应行为;同时构建MNL模型,分析农户因应行为选择的影响因素。结果表明:(1)受教育程度、性别、农户从事农牧业生产年限、人均耕地数、房屋结构、存款数量、人均年收入、家庭成员公务任职情况和是否加入专业合作社对藏族农户感知气候变化及因应行为决策有显著影响。(2)从事农业牧业生产年限、务农人数、外出务工劳动力比例、存款数量、人均年收入、家庭成员公务任职情况和是否使用微信对藏族农户因应气候变化的行为选择有显著影响。The perception and adaptation behavior of Tibetan farmers to the climate change were analyzed quantitatively by building the Heckman Probit two-stage model based on the field data from 467 rural households in the "One River and Two River Streams" area in Tibet, as well as MNL model was established to analyze the influencing factors of farmers′ adaptive behavior choices. The variables, such as education level, gender, duration of engaging in agriculture and animal husbandry, per capita arable land, house structure, amount of deposit, per capita annual income, official positions of family members of farmers, and whether farmers joining to a professional cooperatives, have significant impact on the perception and adapting behaviors of Tibetan farmers to the climate change. Furthermore, the variables such as duration of engaging in agriculture and animal husbandry, number of farmers, the proportion of migrant labor, amount of deposit, per capita annual income, the official position status of family members and the existence of WeChat, have a significant impact on behavior choices of Tibetan farmers in response to climate change.

关 键 词：农户 气候变化 感知 适应行为 西藏 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]