海外油田地质储量评价中的不确定性分析法——以A油田为例  

Uncertainty Analysis Method in Reserves Evaluation of Overseas Oilfi eld-Taking Oilfi eld A as an Example

作　　者：张强 张玲 王伟[1] 田同辉[1] Zhang Qiang;Zhang Ling;Wang Wei;Tian Tonghui(Exploration and Development Research Institute of Shengli Oilfi eld,Sinopec,Shandong,257012)

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利油田分公司勘探开发研究院,山东257012

出　　处：《当代化工研究》2022年第9期72-74,共3页Modern Chemical Research

摘　　要：石油地质储量的落实程度直接影响油藏开发可行性及经济效益。受资料基础、实验器材、研究人员认识程度、公式适用性及误差范围等因素影响,储量计算存在很多不确定性。以海外A油田为例,综合应用地质统计学分析、三维地质建模和不确定性分析方法,开展不确定性参数识别和分级研究,对影响储量的主要不确定性参数及其取值做了重点分析,应用蒙特卡洛法得到储量概率分布,并对其进行分析评价。综合认为,该区储量概率差别大的原因主要在构造方面,并提出下步一开发措施,以降低构造不确定性影响,规避决策风险。The implementation of petroleum geological reserves directly affects the feasibility and economic benefits of reservoir development.Affected by factors such as data basis,experimental equipment,researchers'understanding,formula applicability and error range,technical feasibility,etc.,there are often many uncertainties in the calculation of reserves.Taking the overseas A oilfield as an example,the comprehensive application of geological statistical analysis,three-dimensional geological modeling and uncertainty analysis methods,the identification and grading of uncertainty parameters are carried out,and the main uncertainty parameters affecting reserves and their values are analyzed,and the probability distribution of reserves is obtained by the Monte Carlo method,and it is analyzed and evaluated.It is believed that the reason for the large difference in the probability of reserves in this area is mainly in terms of structure,and the next step of development measures is proposed to reduce the impact of structural uncertainty and avoid decision-making risks.

关 键 词：原油储量 地质模型 不确定性分析 定量 随机误差面 

分 类 号：TQ423.2[化学工程]