贺兰山沿山地区强对流潜势预报方法研究  

Study on Prediction Method of Strong Convective Potential in Mountainous Area of Helan Mountain

作　　者：宝乐尔[1] BAO Leer(Alxa Meteorological Bureau,Bayanhot,Inner Mongolia 750306)

机构地区：[1]阿拉善盟气象局,内蒙古巴彦浩特750306

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2022年第1期46-47,50,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：利用2004—2013年6—8月各探空物理量,运用二值Logistic回归分析,对各指数的数值和空间分布特征进行运算分析,得出其估算值,从而建立强对流诊断预报方程,制作成贺兰山沿山地区未来12 h出现强对流潜势预报方程,并用该方法回报2000—2015年6—8月汛期强对流天气。结果表明,P﹥0.5的准确率可达63.7%,P﹤0.1出现强天气的概率仅为0.3%。该方法对贺兰山沿山地区的短时强降水和雷雨大风等强对流天气的临近预警有较好的指示意义。Based on the radiosonde physical quantities from June to August of 2004 to 2013,binary Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate and analyze the numerical values and spatial distribution characteristics of each index,and the estimated values were obtained,so as to establish the severe convection diagnosis and prediction equation,and make the prediction equation of the potential of severe convection in the mountainous area of Helan Mountain in the next 12 hours.The method was used to report the severe convective weather during the flood season from June to August in 2000-2015.The results showed that the accuracy of P>0.5 can reach 63.7%,and the probability of strong weather with P<0.1 was only 0.3%.This method had a good indication significance for the near warning of severe convective weather such as short-time heavy rainfall and thunderstorm gale in helan Mountain area.

关 键 词：干旱区强对流天气 时空分布 概念模型 预测潜在的方程 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]