基于假设抽取法的行业利用外商直接投资关联研究  

Linkage Analysis of FDI Utilization based on Hypothetical Extraction Method

作　　者：李政阳 宋宇[2] 李昭成 LI Zheng-yang;SONG Yu;LI Zhao-cheng(The Institute for Social and Cultural Research,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao 999078,China;School of Business,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao 999078,China)

机构地区：[1]澳门科技大学社会和文化研究所,中国澳门999078 [2]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门999078

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第5期3-9,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：澳门基金会—可持续发展研究所研究及学术子项目5(MF-19-001-TISD)。

摘　　要：文章基于2010—2018年中国投入产出表及对应年份外商直接投资数据,运用改进后的假设抽取法构建外商直接投资关联效应模型,量化分析外商直接投资的关联效应及其在19个行业之间的转移情况。研究结果表明,在外商直接投资中,制造业纵向集成消耗、复合效应及净前向关联效应最大;制造业对自身行业依赖性呈减弱趋势,但相较于其他行业仍最强;建筑业为最大的净输入行业,对其他行业的依赖性最强且依赖性不断增强;不同年份最大的外商直接投资供给者存在行业差异。行业间的外商直接投资关联实际上反映了外商直接投资在行业中的分布和转移,因此文章有利于明确行业外商直接投资利用的动态关联,以便优化外商直接投资管理机制。Based on China's input-output table from 2010 to 2018 and FDI data in corresponding years,this paper applies the modified hypothetical extraction method to construct the foreign direct investment linkage effect model,and quantitatively analyzes the linkage effect of foreign direct investment and its transfer in 19 industries.The results show that the vertically integrated consumption,mixedeffect,and net forward linkage in manufacturing are the largest.The dependence of manufacturing industry on its own is weakening,but it is still the strongest compared with other industries.The construction industry is the largest net input industry and has the strongest dependence on other industries.The largest foreign direct investment suppliers in different years were manufacturing,finance,leasing and business services.The FDI correlation between industries actually reflects the distribution and transfer of FDI in the industry,so this article is helpful to clarify the dynamic correlation of industry FDI utilization in order to optimize the FDI management.

关 键 词：外商直接投资 假设抽取法 关联效应 纵向集成消耗 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]