基于历史资料的数值预报产品订正系统设计与开发策略  

Study on the Design and Development Strategy of Numerical Forecast Product Correction System Based on Historical Data

作　　者：常俊[1] 任星露 柴波 Chang Jun;Ren Xinglu;Chai Bo(Sichuan Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Chengdu 610072;Ya’an Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Ya’an 625099)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院四川分院,四川成都610072 [2]四川省雅安市气象局,四川雅安625099

出　　处：《中阿科技论坛（中英文）》2022年第5期154-157,共4页China-Arab States Science and Technology Forum

摘　　要：数值预报作为现代业务天气预报最主要的手段,其预报产品已经成为世界各大预报中心最重要的参考资料,而数值预报的精准度是直接影响天气预报准确率的关键因子。本文通过综述一种基于历史资料的欧洲中期天气预报中心数值预报产品订正系统的设计和开发,阐述了该系统的开发背景、总体流程、核心算法和功能模块,认为该设计与开发理念可为天气业务预报准确性提高提供有效解决方案。As the most dominant means of modern operational weather forecasting,numerical forecasting products have become the most important reference for major forecasting centers in the world,and the accuracy of numerical forecasting is a key factor that directly affects the accuracy of weather forecasting.Through reviewing the design and development of a correction system for numerical forecast products based on historical data for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the development background,general process,core algorithms and functional modules of the system are expounded.It’s believed that the design and development concept can be applied to operational weather forecasting to improve its accuracy.

关 键 词：天气预报误差 历史资料 数值预报产品 订正系统 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]