宝鸡一次强降水天气中尺度特征及模式预报分析  

Analysis of Mesoscale Characteristics and Model Forecast of a Heavy Rainfall in Baoji

作　　者：王蕊 吕丹 WANG Rui(Qishan County Meteoro-logical Bureau,Qishan,Shaanxi 722400)

机构地区：[1]岐山县气象局,陕西岐山722400 [2]麟游县气象局,陕西麟游721500

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2022年第3期78-80,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：利用常规气象观测资料、宝鸡多普勒雷达及多家数值预报产品,从提高预报预警能力和气象服务水平出发,对2021年6月15—16日发生在宝鸡地区的一次强降水天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:(1)该次强降水过程主要由于500 hPa短波槽东移,引起700 hPa、850 hPa切变线南北移动,导致偏南风和偏东风将暖湿空气向宝鸡地区输送而形成;(2)地面冷锋是此次降水的主要影响系统;(3)多普勒雷达对降水有一定的指示意义,回波强度很好地表征了降水强度;(4)EC模式相较于GRAPES和NCEP模式的预报效果更好;(5)此次降水的准确预报,引起了市领导的高度重视,并采取了有力的措施,保证了气象服务取得很好的效果。Using conventional meteorological observation data,Baoji Doppler radar and a number of numerical forecast products,starting from improving forecasting and early warning capabilities and meteorological service levels,a heavy rainfall occurred in Baoji area from June 15 to 16,2021.process for diagnostic analysis.The results showed that:(1)This heavy precipitation process was mainly formed by the eastward shift of the 500 hPa short-wave trough,which caused the 700 hPa and 850 hPa shear lines to move north-south,resulting in the southerly and easterly winds transporting warm and humid air to Baoji;(2)The surface cold front was the main influence system of this precipitation;(3)Doppler radar had a certain indication significance for precipitation,and the echo intensity can well characterize the precipitation intensity;(3)Compared with the GRAPES and NCEP models,the EC model;(4)The accurate forecast of this precipitation had attracted great attention from the city leaders,and effective measures have been taken to ensure that the meteorological service has achieved good results.

关 键 词：中尺度特征 短波槽 切变线 地面冷锋 气象服务 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]