基于模糊贝叶斯网络的化工园区火灾爆炸事故情景推演  

Scenario Deduction of Fire and Explosion Accidents in Chemical Industry Parks Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network

作　　者：宋英华[1,2] 刘子奇 刘丹[1,2] 方丹辉[1,2] SONG Yinghua;LIU Ziqi;LIU Dan;FANG Danhui(China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2022年第3期86-93,共8页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0807001-01);国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CTQ022)。

摘　　要：为量化分析化工园区内火灾爆炸事故的风险因素,从“情景-应对”研究视角出发,提出基于模糊贝叶斯网络的化工园区火灾爆炸事故情景推演方法。该方法首先将化工园区火灾爆炸事故情景按照“情景状态-人的行为-承灾体-应急管理”四要素分类,采用知识元模型进行表示;然后基于专家知识结合模糊数学量化各要素的先验概率,并确定条件概率,通过构建模糊贝叶斯网络模型,运用Netica软件进行分析,得出各要素的发生概率;最后以2019年内蒙古东兴化工“4·24”爆炸事故为例进行了实例验证与分析。结果表明:事故按照大风天气→氯乙烯气柜卡顿泄漏→氯乙烯气体扩散→爆炸的方向发展,计算结果与事故实际发展相符,推演结果与事故实际的情景演化过程基本一致,从而验证了该方法的合理性和可行性。In order to quantitatively analyze the risk factors of fire and explosion accidents in chemical indus-try parks,we propose a method,which is from the perspective of“scenario-response”research,for deduc-tion of fire and explosion accidents in chemical industry parks based on fuzzy Bayesian networks.Conside-ring that accidents are coupled by multiple factors,we classify the fire and explosion accidents in chemical industry parks according to four elements of“situational state-human behavior-bearer-emergency manage-ment”,and we represent it by a knowledge element model.Based on expert knowledge and fuzzy mathema-tics,this study quantifies the prior probability of each element and determines the conditional probability,then builds a fuzzy Bayesian network model,makes anyalysis with Netica software,and obtains the occur-rence probability of each element.Finally,the study takes“4·24”explosion accident of Dongxing Chemical Industry in Inner Mongolia in 2019as an example for analysis and verification.The results show that the accident develops in the direction of windy weather→gas tank freezes leaking→vinyl chloride diffusion→explosion,and the calculation results are consistent with the actual development of the accident.The deduc-tion result is basically consistent with the actual scenario evolution process of the accident,which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：化工园区 火灾爆炸事故 情景推演 知识元 模糊贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]