云南省新型冠状病毒肺炎的时空特征分析  

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Yunnan Province

作　　者：郑良婷 胡文英[1] 胡斌[2] 段平[1] 李佳[1] Zheng Liangting;Hu Wenying;Hu Bin(Department of Geography,Yunnan Normal University(650500),Kunming)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,650500 [2]昆明市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2022年第2期176-179,185,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901336)。

摘　　要：目的探讨云南省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行病学特征。方法基于云南省卫生健康委员会发布的175例COVID-19数据,利用ArcGIS 10.5从时间、空间和扩散比三个维度来分析云南省COVID-19的流行病学特征。结果(1)云南省疫情随时间发展经历了三个阶段,发展期:2020年1月22日—1月28日,第一例输入性病例在云南省出现的一周内,每日新增确诊病例<10例;爆发期:2020年1月28日—2月2日,疫情病例数呈激增状态,每日新增确诊病例数≥10例;衰减期:每日新增确诊病例呈起伏下降;(2)云南省COVID-19在空间上呈现东多西少、北多南少的空间分布特点,主要集中在昆明市、玉溪市、昭通市等地,但在西部地区的大理州、西双版纳州出现两个高值区;(3)云南省输入性病例在空间上没有显著的空间聚集特征,本地聚集性疫情涉及的病例数多于输入聚集性疫情所报告的病例数,且以社交聚集为主。结论云南省COVID-19疫情处于低流行阶段,病例分布特点与人口密度和经济活跃程度有关,且疫情传播主要以社交传播为主。Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) in Yunnan Province.Methods Based on the data of 175 cases of COVID-19 released by the Health Commission of Yunnan Province, ArcGIS 10.5 was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Yunnan from the three dimensions of time, space and spread ratio.Results(1) The characteristics of the development of the epidemic situation in Yunnan Province over time had gone through three stages.Development period: from January 22 to January 28,2020,within one week of the first imported case in Yunnan Province, there were less than 10 newly confirmed cases every day;Outbreak period: from January 28 to February 2,2020,the number of epidemic cases showed a sharp increase, and the number of new confirmed cases per day was ≥10;Decay period: the number of new confirmed cases every day fluctuates and decreases.(2) COVID-19 in Yunnan Province was spatially distributed with more in the east and less in the west and more in the north and less in the south.Mainly concentrated in Kunming City, Yuxi City, Zhaotong City and other places, but in the western region of Dali and Xishuangbanna, two high-value areas appeared.(3) Imported cases in Yunnan Province did not have significant spatial clustering characteristics.Local clustered epidemics involve more cases than reported cases for imported clusters, and the spread was mainly social gathering.Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemic in Yunnan Province was in a low prevalence stage.The distribution characteristics of cases were related to population density and economic activity, and the spread of the epidemic was mainly social transmission.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 云南省 时空分布 空间流行病学 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]