基于灰色系统理论的道路交通事故特征与预测方法分析  

作　　者：姬保静[1] 李妍 郭浩馨 赵纯 

机构地区：[1]济宁学院工程学院,山东曲阜273100

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2022年第14期42-45,共4页Technology Innovation and Application

摘　　要：以我国道路交通事故为研究对象,运用趋势图分析道路交通事故变化规律,在此基础上选择原始数据为4个的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和N-Verhulst模型进行道路交通事故的预测。结果表明,原始数据长度为4的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对道路交通事故起数、死亡人数、万车死亡率均有较高预测精度,N-Verhulst模型对万车死亡率和死亡人数有较高预测精度。Taking the road traffic accidents in China as the research object,the trend chart is used to analyze the change law of road traffic accidents.On this basis,the metabolic GM model and N-Verhulst model with four original data are selected to predict road traffic accidents.The results show that the metabolic GM(1,1) model with the original data length of 4 has high prediction accuracy for the number of road traffic accidents,the number of deaths and the death rate of ten thousand vehicles,while the N-Verhulst model has higher prediction accuracy for the death rate of ten thousand vehicles and the number of deaths.

关 键 词：道路交通事故 新陈代谢GM(1 1)模型 N-Verhulst模型 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]