基于Verhulst模型的围岩变形预测方法研究  

A Prediction Method of Surrounding Rock Deformation based on Verhulst Model

作　　者：程丽[1] 陈刚 CHENG Li;CHEN Gang(Sichuan Water Resources and Hydroelectric Investigation & Design Institute Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610072, China;Sichuan Water Resources Planning & Research Institute, Chengdu 610072, China)

机构地区：[1]四川省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072 [2]四川省水利规划研究院,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水电与新能源》2022年第5期10-12,16,共4页Hydropower and New Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51379162)。

摘　　要：避免围岩出现破坏性变形是保障围岩稳定的关键,也是开展围岩变形预测研究的主要目的。针对短测值序列条件下的围岩变形预测问题,基于灰色系统理论中的Verhulst模型,构建了一种适合于对收敛型变形进行预测的方法。研究表明,围岩变形Verhulst预测模型具有良好的预测精度,能克服其他模型需要长测值序列和完整环境资料的缺点,为施工期围岩变形预测提供了一条新途径。To ensure the stability of surrounding rocks,the key is to avoid destructive deformation,which is also the main purpose of the surrounding rock deformation prediction.For the deformation prediction of surrounding rocks with short measurement series,a prediction method suitable for predicting convergent deformation is proposed based on the Verhulst model in grey system theory.It shows that the Verhulst prediction model of surrounding rock deformation is of good prediction accuracy and can overcome the shortcomings of other models that long measurement series and complete environment data are necessary.It provides a new way for the prediction of surrounding rock deformation during the construction period.

关 键 词：围岩变形 预测 灰色系统 VERHULST模型 

分 类 号：TV64[水利工程—水利水电工程]