全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XIV.东北大豆高产稳产区及农业气象灾害分析  

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XIV. Distribution of High-Stable-Yield Zones and Agro-Meteorological Disasters of Soybean in Northeast China

作　　者：郭世博 张方亮 张镇涛 周丽涛 赵锦[1] 杨晓光[1] GUO ShiBo;ZHANG FangLiang;ZHANG ZhenTao;ZHOU LiTao;ZHAO Jin;YANG XiaoGuang(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2022年第9期1763-1780,共18页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607402)。

摘　　要：【目的】大豆是主要的粮油兼用作物,东北三省是我国大豆主产区,研究气候变化背景下东北三省大豆气候生产潜力高产稳产性区域分布及其变化特征,明确不同区域限制大豆高产稳产性的主要农业气象灾害,可为东北三省大豆合理布局、防灾避灾以及高产稳产提供科学参考。【方法】以1981年为时间节点,将研究时段划分为1961—1980年(时段Ⅰ)和1981—2019年(时段Ⅱ)两个时段,利用调参验证后的DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean模型模拟研究区域大豆潜在种植区各站点气候生产潜力,明确气候变化背景下大豆气候生产潜力高产稳产性区域分布及其变化特征;结合大豆冷害和干旱指标,明确不同高产稳产性区域冷害和干旱的时空分布特征;结合统计方法,明确限制大豆高产性和稳产性的主要农业气象灾害因子。【结果】(1)与1961—1980年(时段Ⅰ)相比,1981—2019年(时段Ⅱ)大豆潜在种植区增加2.81×106 hm2,占研究区域总土地面积的3.57%;(2)与时段Ⅰ相比,时段Ⅱ稳产区面积占比减少,其中高产稳产区面积占潜在种植区内总土地面积的比例由17.67%减少到17.11%,高产不稳产区占比由13.54%增加到15.13%,低产稳产区占比由34.98%增加到38.17%,低产不稳产区占比由18.58%减小到18.49%;(3)研究时段内,大豆生长季冷害发生频次总体呈现先上升后下降趋势,高产稳产和高产不稳产区冷害特别是严重冷害发生频次高于低产稳产区以及低产不稳产区;大豆生长季轻旱和中旱发生频次增加,重旱发生频次减小;(4)大豆产量变化与冷害发生频次呈负相关关系,产量变异性的变化与冷害和干旱发生频次均呈正相关关系。【结论】气候变暖背景下,东北三省大豆潜在种植区呈北移西扩趋势,可种植面积增加;大豆高产不稳产和低产稳产面积增加,高产稳产区和低产不稳产区面积减少;不同高产稳产性区域内主要农业气象灾害不同,低�【Objective】 Soybean is an important oil-seeds crop, and Northeast China(NEC) is the main soybean productive region of China. It is important to investigate the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability of rain-fed potential yield and to identify the major agro-meteorological disasters, which could provide important scientific references for the reasonable layout of soybean.【Method】The year 1981 was taken as a time node wan divided the period 1961-2019 into two sub-periods(1961-1981 and 1981-2019). The well-calibrated DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model was applied to simulate rain-fed soybean potential yield at each stations in possible planting area of NEC to clarify the distribution of zones both high yield and high yield stability. The distribution and temporal changes of cold damage and drought were identified in different high-yield and stable-yield zones. Coupled with statistical methods, the limitations of major agro-meteorological disasters on soybean high-stable-yield were further analyzed. 【Result】(1) Compared with 1961 to 1980(period Ⅰ), the soybean possible planting area was increased by 2.81×106 hm2(3.57% of the whole land area in NEC).(2) Compared with periodⅠ, the percentage of high stability yield zones area of possible planting area increasing in periodⅡ. The percentage of high-stable zones area in possible planting area decreased from 17.67% to 17.11%, and the percentage of high-unstable yield zones area increased from 34.98% to 38.17%, while the percentage of low-stable area increased from 34.98% to 38.17% and the percentage of low-unstable zones area decreased from 18.58% to 18.49%.(3) During the study period, the frequency of cold damage during soybean growing season showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. High-stable zones and high-unstable zones showed higher cold damage frequency, especially serious cold damage. The frequency of light drought and moderate drought increased, but the serious drought frequency decreased during the soybean growing seas

关 键 词：气候变化 东北三省大豆 高产性 稳产性 冷害 干旱 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] S565.1