中国足球超级联赛致胜关键指标:基于8个赛季的数据分析  

Key Performance Indicators Related to Winning in the Chinese Super League of Football:Analysis Based on the Data of Eight Seasons

作　　者：屈铁强 陈彦龙 周长敬 龚炳南 刘鸿优 QU Tieqiang;CHEN Yanlong;ZHOU Changjing;GONG Bingnan;LIU Hongyou(College of Physical Education,Hanshan NormalUniversity,Chaozhou 521041,China;Department of Physical Education,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Physical Education and Training,Shanghai University of Sport,Shanghai 200438,China;Institute of Physical Education and Training,Capital University of Physical Education and Sports,Beijing 100191,China;School of Physical Education&Sports Science,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China;National Demonstration Centre for Experimental Sports Science Education,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]韩山师范学院体育学院,广东潮州521041 [2]广东外语外贸大学体育部,广东广州510006 [3]上海体育学院体育教育训练学院,上海200438 [4]首都体育学院体育教育训练学院,北京100191 [5]华南师范大学体育科学学院,广东广州510006 [6]华南师范大学运动科学国家级实验教学示范中心,广东广州510006

出　　处：《体育科研》2022年第3期93-99,104,共8页Sport Science Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19CTY014)。

摘　　要：采取数据级数推断与广义混合线性模型的统计方法,以2012—2019赛季中国足球超级联赛1899场比赛的跑动指标和技术指标数值为自变量,以比赛结果为因变量,界定比赛致胜关键指标。结果:(1)各项跑动相关指标的增加对比赛获胜概率只带来微小无意义的影响;(2)在技术指标中,增加2个标准差的射正率可以为球队获胜概率带来31%的增量(99%置信区间:±4.4%),而增加2个标准差的个人控球时间、个人控球次数、进攻三区个人控球次数、个人控球平均触球次数、传球次数、传球成功率、向前场传球次数、向前场传球成功率和传中次数分别会降低20%(±4.2%)、25.3%(±4.2%)、25.6%(±4.3%)、17.3%(±4.1%)、25.2%(±4.2%)、19%(±4.2%)、25.8%(±4.3%)、19%(±4.2%)和32%(±4.2%)的比赛获胜概率,而增加一张红牌,会给球队获胜概率带来10.6%(±4.3%)的下降。Employing the magnitude-based inference and the generalized mixed linear modelling,the key performance indicators related to winning in the 2012-2019 Chinese Football Super League was identified by analyzing the data of 1899 matches provided by Amisco.The results showed that:(1)There were trivial changes in the winning probability of the game by increasing the values of running-related variables;(2)increasing the shot accuracy by 2 SDs would bring a 31%(±99%confidence interval:±4.4%)higher probability of winning,while a two-SD increment in individual possession time,individual possession frequency,individual possession frequency in attacking third,pass,pass accuracy,forward pass,forward pass accuracy and cross would reduce the winning probability by 20%(±4.2%),25.3%(±4.2%),25.6%(±4.3%),17.3%(±4.1%),25.2%(±4.2%),19%(±4.2%),25.8%(±4.3%),19%(±4.2%)and 32%(±4.2%).While an extra red card would decrease the probability of winning by 10.6%(±4.3%).

关 键 词：足球 中超联赛 跑动 技术 比赛表现分析 数据级数推断 

分 类 号：G808[文化科学—体育训练]