碳达峰倒逼高耗能行业转型的经济影响评估--以陕西省为例  

The Economic Evaluation of Energy-Intensive Industries Transition Due to the Carbon Emission Peaks:Evidence from Shaanxi Province

作　　者：林泽伟 汪鹏[1,2,3] 任松彦 张智胜[5] 许鸿伟 LIN Zewei;WANG Peng;REN Songyan;ZHANG Zhisheng;XU Hongwei(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;South China Institute of Environmental Science,Guangzhou Guangdong 510655,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东广州510640 [3]广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [5]生态环境部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州510655

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第6期13-21,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“基于经济—技术—空间集成能源模型研究”(71603248);广东科技计划“工业园区智慧能源管理系统关键技术研究”(2017A050501060)。

摘　　要：高耗能行业碳达峰是实现全社会碳达峰的前提。论文通过构建国家—陕西两区域CGE模型,设计基准情景和三个减排情景,评估碳达峰目标的倒逼机制作用对宏观经济及产业部门的影响。研究表明:碳控制政策能有效控制碳排放增速,三个减排情景于2029年实现碳达峰,能源消费总量达峰时间滞后于碳达峰。相比基准情景,全行业实施碳控制政策导致GDP损失1.20%;只限制高耗能行业实现碳达峰目标,投资结构优化弥补产能的缩小,GDP损失仅为1.06%。高耗能行业实施碳交易政策能优化配置碳减排空间,进一步缓解0.23%的GDP损失。通过集中管控高耗能行业碳排放,促进高耗能行业提前实现碳达峰,可有效降低全社会碳减排成本,支撑能源大省完成碳达峰目标和保障经济的可持续发展。Energy-intensive industries achieving the carbon emission peak is the premise for a country or region to achieve the peak.This study builds a national-Shaanxi CGE model,sets up a baseline scenario and three emission reduction scenarios to evaluate the impact on macroeconomics and related industries under the reversal mechanism of the carbon peak target.The result shows:after implementing the carbon control policy,the growth rate of carbon emissions can be effectively controlled.The three emission reduction scenarios will achieve the peak of carbon emissions in 2029,and the peak of total energy consumption will lag behind the peak of carbon.After the implementation of carbon control policies in all industries,the GDP loss of 1.20%compared to the baseline scenario.If only restrict the energy-intensive industries to achieve the carbon peak target,the investment structure will be optimized.This made up for the reduction in production capacity,and the GDP lost 1.06%.After the energy-intensive industries implementing the carbon trading policy,it optimizes the allocation of carbon emissions space,further eased 0.23%of GDP loss.Through centralized management and control of carbon emissions in energy-intensive industries,and promoting energy-intensive industries to achieve carbon peaks in advance,it can effectively reduce the implementation cost of carbon emission reduction for the whole society,support major energy provinces to achieve carbon peaks,and ensure the sustainable development of the economy.

关 键 词：碳达峰 CGE模型 高耗能行业 边际减排成本 碳交易 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]