基于GWR模型的长江三角洲森林生态安全驱动因素研究  

Driving Factors of Forest Ecological Security in Yangtze River Delta Based on GWR Model

作　　者：冯彦 汤旭[2] 包庆丰[3] FENG Yan;TANG Xu;BAO Qingfeng(Research Institute for Eco-Civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;School of Economics,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha Hunan 410000,China;College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010018,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京100710 [2]中南林业科技大学经济学院,湖南长沙410000 [3]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第6期200-207,216,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“欠发达沿海城市发展的制约因素与突破路径研究”(20BJY067)。

摘　　要：论文基于改进的PSR(Pressure-State-Response)理论,以长江三角洲307个区县为研究对象,建立森林生态安全评估指标体系;采用熵权法、ArcGIS软件评估森林生态安全、分析空间分布特征;利用地理加权回归模型研究森林生态安全的影响因素。结论如下:(1)长江三角洲森林生态安全指数均值为0.43,属于一般水平,整体呈非均衡分布。(2)区域城镇化水平、生态区位系数与森林生态安全指数显著负相关,工业结构与森林生态安全指数相关性较弱。基于结论提出建议:(1)城镇化水平较低的地区,加快农村人口向城市集聚。而城镇化水平较高的地区,应加强森林生态安全红线控制。(2)用生态文明理念引领产业结构实现绿色转型,推进循环经济。(3)充分利用地方自然禀赋,将生态区位比较优势转化为生态区位竞争优势。Firstly,based on the improved theory of the Pressure-State-Response(PSR),the paper takes the 307 counties located in the Yangtze River Delta as a case study to establish an evaluation index system for forest ecological security.Secondly,we use the entropy method to estimate the forest ecological security of the study area,and analyse the spatial characteristics of the distribution of values with the support of ArcGIS software.Thirdly,geographically weighted regression model is used to analyse the driving factors.The conclusions are as follows.Firstly,the average value of forest ecology security index in the Yangtze River Delta is 0.43,which belongs to the general level,and the overall distribution is unbalanced.Secondly,the level of urbanization and ecological location coefficient are significantly negatively correlated with forest ecology security index in the Yangtze River Delta,and the industrial structure shows weak correlation with the forest ecology security index.Based on the above research,there are several suggestions.Firstly,the area with low level of urbanization should promote the concentration of rural population to urban areas,while,for the area with high level of urbanization,the management of red line for forest ecology security should be strengthened.Secondly,green transformation of the industry and circular economy should be promoted under the guidance of the concept of ecological civilization.Thirdly,the government should make full use of local natural endowment,and transform the comparative advantage of ecological location into competitive advantage of ecological location.

关 键 词：长江三角洲 森林生态安全 生态区位系数 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]