气候变化与宏观金融风险--来自全球58个代表性国家的证据  

Climate Change and Macro-Financial Risk:International Evidence

作　　者：高睿 王营[2] 曹廷求[3,4] Gao Rui;Wang Ying;Cao Tingqiu(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266000,China;School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China;School of Economics,Finance Research Centre(Jinan),Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,266000 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,250014 [3]山东大学经济学院,050100 [4]山东大学产业金融(济南)研究中心

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2022年第3期3-20,共18页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“地方金融运行动态监测及系统性风险预警研究”(19ZDA091);国家自然科学基金青年项目“高管同群现象及其决策行为研究”(71802116)的资助。

摘　　要：气候变化是导致经济和金融系统不稳定的重大因素。本文以极端气候事件为切入点,基于2004—2017年全球58个代表性国家样本证实气候变化将引起宏观金融风险积累,作用时滞为2年~3年,具体表现为一国债务风险、流动性风险和汇率风险攀升。尽管各国气候变化进程不同,但气候变化对宏观金融风险的影响是普遍存在的;同时,由于低收入国家尚未能清晰识别和有效管理气候风险,气候变化对低收入国家的影响更甚。机制检验结果表明,气候变化通过造成居民失业、企业减产、金融机构不良贷款增加进而引发宏观金融风险。本文基于气候变化相关失业、推动经济绿色转型、强化气候风险评估与管理能力建设三方面为构建系统和完整的气候风险应对框架提出政策建议。Climate change is a major factor leading to economic and financial system instability.Based on a sample of 58 representative countries from 2004 to 2017,this paper takes extreme climate events as the entry point and confirms that climate change will increase macro-financial risks with a time delay of 2~3 years,which can present as debt risk,liquidity risk and exchange rate risk.Although the process of climate change is different in different countries,the impact of climate change on macro-financial risks is universal.The impact of climate change on macro-financial risk of low-income countries is stronger because they cannot clearly identify and effectively manage climate risks.Mechanism test results show that climate change increases macro-financial risks by lifting unemployment rate,reducing production,and increasing non-performing loans of financial institutions.In this paper,policy suggestions are put forward to build a systematic and complete climaterelated macro-financial risks response framework from three aspects:solving climaterelated unemployment,promoting green economic transformation,and strengthening the capacity of climate risk assessment and management.

关 键 词：气候变化 宏观金融风险 跨国证据 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]